Draxblog III

Thoughts on Hajduk Anniversary

HNK Hajduk, Split's major soccer club and one of the most recognisable symbols of the city is just celebrating its 100th anniversary. The city is full of fans which have celebrated their club's birthdays with one of the most spectacular fireworks in Split's history.

The celebrations also include friendly game between HNK Hajduk and Czech club Slavia Prague. HNK Hajduk is at this time (16:42) losing with 0-1.

The weather is not very friendly towards the revellers. The sky is cloudy and air happens to be damp. So, just like the result, celebrations are going to be tempered with rather prosaic reality.

In many ways, this is what I have expected. Anniversaries are occasions better suited for reflections than for celebrations. Passage of time serves best by putting things in perspective. And this perspective isn't particularly kind towards Split soccer club, faced with results far from its historical glory.

Hajduk fans can comfort themselves that they aren't the only people whose anniversaries, especially those related to big round numbers, coincided with bad situations and situations soon to become even worse. 150th anniversary of French Revolution occured shortly before one of France's worst historic humiliations; USA celebrated its 200th anniversary faced with traumas of Vietnam, Watergate and Carterian malaise. Croatia's eastern neighbour celebrated its 200th anniversary of "statehood" at the eve of another historic humiliations - departure of Montenegro and Kosovo.

Compared with such catastrophes and calamities, present situation in HNK Hajduk and Split doesn't look so bad.

 

Željko Kerum Announces Leaving Wife for Pregnant Mistress

Željko Kerum, controversial mayor of Split tonight again wrote new page of Croatian history by doing something nobody - at least no person of his stature or importance - ever did.

Tonight he was guest at talk show of TV Dalmacija, local TV station he owned. At the very end of the show he announced that he was leaving Ankica Kerum, his wife of 19 years - with whom he had a son and daughter - in order to live with his 24-year old mistress Fani Horvat, who expects his child. Kerum confirmed rumours - widely circulated during the election campaign - about mistress and added that he and Ms. Horvat had an affair for five years. He apologised to his family for having to go public with his news and added that he would never speak of this subject ever again.

Kerum's shocking announcement was even more shocking, considering that he nearly coincided with his suprise visit to Split's very first Tweetup, which was held at Joker shopping mall, the centre of his business empire.

This kind of announcement is completely new territory even for most experienced Croatian pundits and media experts, so it is almost pointless to speculate about eventual political consequences. Kerum's ambitions in national politics are already seriously compromised by his major faux pas at Nedjeljom u 2 talk show, and uniformly inimical national media won't make this event any easier for him. On the other hand, at least some voters might appreciate Kerum's brutal sincerity - so uncharacteristic for average Croatian politician.

Željko Kerum's New Party - First Impressions

Željko Kerum, mayor of Split, founded a new political party in Split. Ceremony was held in Sky restaurant, at the fourth floor of his Joker shopping centre in Split. The event was aired by TV Dalmacija, his local TV station and replayed twice during the day.

There are more reasons for such over-exposure by his media outlet than pure propaganda. By airing and recording that event, Kerum tried to prevent most of Croatian media - increasingly hostile due to his major faux pas at national television less than week ago - from distorting his words or the character of his party.

In his speech Kerum denied that he was "nationalist or racist", and explained that he only "gave true answer" to "provocative question" - the same answer that would truthfully tell "majority of Croats and Serbs". Then he tried to describe himself as "good man who always helped people", "that he was raised that way" and that his patriotism didn't include "hatred towards anyone". Trying to dispell the myth of Kerum as flaming Croatian bigot, mayor of Split reminded the audience of his independent candidates' list on May 2009 elections, that included ethnic Serbs and atheists.

Is this non-apology going to help Kerum get out of trouble? Probably not. Reputation of a bigot is easily gained and difficult to discard these days. In order to quash it, Kerum would have to employ all kinds of spectacular gestures like Sanader's attending of SDSS Orthodox Christmas party. Such gestures would be rejected as hypocrisy by his critics and interpreted as a sign of weakness by his followers. Kerum concluded that the best course is simply to contain the damage.

Controversy created by Kerum's "unfortunate remarks", on the other hand, again gave Croatian shallow media and commentariat perfect excuse not to report or comment on more important issues - character and platform of his new party and its eventual effect on Croatia's politics and future.

The first phrase that comes to mind after watching the birth of Kerum's party is "tabula rasa". Just like its founder, it lacks strong political or ideological foundation. Kerum himself admitted by claiming that "the people are disatisfied with two major parties" (HDZ and SDP) and "that the market" (for new parties) "has opened", allowing his new party to fill it. Kerum - as self-made "common man" without previous political career and experience - is going to fill the void created by widespread disappointment with Croatian political class. In doing so, he wouldn't be constrained by his political beliefs, logic or ideological consistency.

That inconsistency could be found in the name of party itself - Croatian Citizens Party (Hrvatska građanska stranka). On one hand, Kerum is forced to use name "Croatian" just like all those Croatian nationalist parties created in 1990, when Croatia was still part of Yugoslavia. On the other hand, by using a word "citizen", Kerum tries to give impression of more "hip", left-wing definition of Croatian state that doesn't emphasise ethnicity - just like multi-ethnic "civic" or "citizens" parties in neighbouring Bosnia-Herzegovina.

In this way Kerum tries to get to the Holy Grail of Croatian politics - position in political centre that could allow him to shift allegiances and policies depending to various economic and political circumstances. If a right-wing coalition is required, his party will be "Croatian". If a left-wing coalition is required, his party will be "citizens".

Another way to achieve Ideological ambiguity of Kerum's party is in personnel politics. None of the people in the new party leadership had any previous experience in political parties - they are almost exclusively Kerum's relatives, business partners or former top employees in his companies. None of them is likely to articulate some meaningful political program or original idea.

The platform of the party - exposed in parts by Željko Šundov, deputy mayor and Kerum's long-time right-hand man - is also hardly original. It looks like a carbon copy of almost any Croatian political party platform with usual set of obligatory declarations (human rights, democracy, UN, EU and NATO membership) and contradictory goals (pro-business policies vs. generous welfare state). Few hints of ideological affiliations in platform, however, point rightwards - mostly due to platform stating "support for all peaceful civic religions" instead of "freedom of religion" or "separation of church and state".

Those hints would be emphasised by anti-Kerum media in order for his party to be branded as "right-wing" or, thanks to verbal outbursts of Kerum and some of his over-enthusiastic supporters, "far right". In my view, however, "right-wing populism" is better term. Kerum himself explained his party as an attempt to "enter market", and the Split and his surroundings are currently more right-wing than other parts of country. In other words, Kerum would adapt his party ideology and policies towards ideological framework of his average voter.

At the same time, it is clear that Kerum has lofty ambitions of being a player at national level. He described HGS as "third strongest party in Croatia" - quite a stretch, considering that it was just founded and never had opportunity to test its strength at elections or opinion polls. Kerum, therefore, expects either to be kingmaker whose party will decide who has majority in Sabor or even to be prime minister himself.

HGS and Kerum, however, can't achieve that at this time. Kerum yesterday predicted that his party could win 10 seats in Sabor. This is feasible, but mostly at the expense of HDZ in Dalmatia - already mauled in May 2009 elections. Even with so many seats, HGS now looks like mostly regional phenomenon, somewhat stronger than regional HDSSB party in Slavonia.

In order to rise above that level, HGS would have to be something more than beacon for disgruntled right-wingers in the areas Denis Kuljiš recently began to call "Eastern Croatia". Sticking to mindset of Split and its hinterland would only create perfect excuse for SDP and HDZ to finally create their long-sought "Grand coalition" and preserve status quo by setting themselves as guardians of "proper European democracy" and against Kerum and other "dangerous irresponsible populists".

Željko Kerum is New Mayor of Split

On 20:15, roughly 75 minutes after polls closing, Željko Kerum declared himself to be the winner of second and final round of Split mayoral election. According to Kerum's data, he won around 60, while Ranko Ostojić won 40 percent of vote. First official data from City Election Commission show that Kerum won 56.83, while Ranko Ostojić won 40.82 percent.

Those results were expected. Rest of Croatia is also following suit, without much surprises - Milan Bandić is elected for mayor of Zagreb, while HDSSB candidate Krešimir Bubalo won mayorship of Osijek. SDP candidate Tonino Picula has lost Velika Gorica, while votes in Dubrovnik still give some hope to current mayor and HDZ candidate Dubravka Šuica. In Vukovar, joint HDZ-SDSS ticket deflected serious SDP challenge. Šibenik will have to wait until June 14th for procedural reasons.

UPDATE: Slobodna Dalmacija reports that Šuica conceded. So, Andro Vlahušić will be new mayor of Dubrovnik.

UPDATE: It seems that, after arrival of new data, HDZ-HDSSB actually lost Vukovar. This should be good night for SDP after all. Dubrovnik and Vukovarwill be two incredibly precious results for Milanović to keep his position of SDP leader.

Election 2009 Update - Results Trickle In, Spin Begins

Croatian political analysts and media used to say that today's local and regional elections will be important because of the trends they might indicate before presidential contest - about to take place in January - and parliamentary elections, set for November 2011. However, there is one huge problem with today's elections and it is unlikely that they might serve for future-predicting purposes. It is large number of counties, cities and rural municipalities, with even larger number of colourful local personalities and issues and rather mixed and sometimes even contradictory results that might be interpreted in any way imaginable. Second round of voting is going to complicate general perception even further.

So, despite official results slowly trickling in, it is likely that both HDZ and SDP will proclaim great victory. HDZ will win in most of counties and majority of mostly rural municipalities. SDP is going to boast with increased share of the vote in Zagreb and impressive victory in Rijeka, as well with victories in most of the cities. Anti-HDZ intelligentsia and media commentators will be delighted with HDZ losing in four biggest Croatian cities.

Željko Kerum, who otherwise had extremely good day - trouncing Ranko Ostojić and almost winning first round of Split mayoral election, with his candidates' lists as relative winner in Split City Assembly and doing well at Split-Dalmatian County Assembly - didn't seem particularly pleased with the fact that he would have to fight with SDP candidate in second round. Some of it became evident during the interview with Nova TV anchor Mislav Bago, during which he blamed both Bago and Sofija Preljvukić, Nova TV Split reporter, for the loss of necessary votes. Iva Gačić, Nova TV's news editor-in-chief titled the video-clip "Kerum Vented His Frustration on Nova TV reporters" and demanded Kerum's apology in accompanying text.

However, judging by some of the comments by Kerums' supporters on Internet forums, future mayor of Split is likely to get some praise for such conduct. His verbal assault on Bago might, on the other hand, be interpreted as preventive strike or attempt never to allow himself to be bushwhacked by Bago as Sanader was during legendary interview.

Election 2009 update - First Exit Polls

Elections for mayor, based on RTL and Nova estimates (19:00):

Zagreb - Milan Bandić (48.5 percent), edge of first round victory; 2nd place - independent candidate Josip Kregar (cca. 25 percent)

Split - Željko Kerum (40 percent), Ranko Ostojić (37 percent)

Rijeka - Veljko Obersnel (57 percent), 1st round victory

Osijek - Krešimir Bubalo (40 percent), 2nd place fight between independent candidate Gordan Matković and HDZ-HSP candidate (21 percent).

UPDATE (19:39): Kerum leads in the race for Split City Assembly. His list won 10 seats (27.5 percent), while SDP won 9 (27.3 percent). Third is HDZ with 5 seats (15 percent).

Election Day 2009 Update - Higher Turnout

My first predictions, based on my early polling station experience, proved to be far-fetched indeed. According to State Election Commission, turnout at 16:00 in entire Croatia is about 32.66 percent, which is significantly higher compared with 2005 local elections, when the turnout was only 28.51 percent.

However, one of the more spectacular turnout increases happens to be in Split-Dalmatian County. At 16:00 turnout was 33.94 percent, which is 9 percent more than in 2005 (24.85 percent). Even more spectacular increase is in City of Split proper - which had 31.94 percent, or more voters at 16:00 than entire 2005 total. Compared with 16:00 turnout in 2005 - mere 18.94 percent - this is dramatic increase indeed.

High turnout in Split at this time indicate what could easily be excellent news for Željko Kerum and - considering dramatic increase of urban share of the vote in Split-Dalmatian County - very bad news for HDZ.

Election Day 2009 - First Impressions

Today is the day when Croatians for the first time have opportunity to elect their mayors and county governors directly. I used that opportunity rather early, and that allowed me some time to address the issue of local elections on this blog.

Currently, most of my blogging is in Croatian, but I haven't blogged much about election. I made my endorsement on my new Croatian blog, though, although I won't repeat it here due to Croatian election silence laws.

I can, however, bring some impression from polling station. I voted early, so it is hard to make some far-fetched predictions. I think the turnout is not going to be particularly spectacular and the usual voters - elderly and hard-core believers - are going to be majority. This could be good news for forces of Status quo and Establishment and bad news for Croatia.

New Polls Give Kerum and Kregar Their First Reality Check

Željko Kerum and Josip Kregar are two quite different mayoral candidates yet their campaigns have created excitement, enthusiasm and even euphoria for exactly the same reasons - voters' desire express their disgust with current political establishment. Both candidates enjoyed huge boost in their popularity and both seem close to achieving their goals. Until recent polls that indicate that such task might be much harder than previously expected.

First such poll was phone inquiry conducted by Vectura, Zagreb-based polling agency, in Split. According to sample of 450 citizens of Split, Ranko Ostojić is actually leading previously unstoppable Kerum. SDP candidate can expect 36.7 percent of the vote in the first round compared with Kerum's 32 percent - or, if the undecided are excluded - 44.7 percent to 37.5 percent.

Ostojić's victory in first round, however, doesn't guarantee that SDP will actually get highly-coveted post of mayor in second Croatian city. Third place is held by current mayor and HDZ candidate Ivan Kuret with 13.8 percent. He can't expect victory, but it is reasonable to expect that most of his voters - who are right-wing - would support "Croat and Catholic" Kerum rather than "Commie" Ostojić.

Nevertheless, if those numbers are actually reflected in the polls, this could represent not only huge upset but represent huge morale blow for Kerum and his campaign. Even worse news for Kerum are poll results of his independent candidates' for City Council. Unlike Kerum, his choice of candidates - that include singer Jelena Rozga and mostly unknown candidates - isn't that popular among citizens of Split. Poll gives the list 18.4 percent, only slightly more than HDZ with 16.4 percent. Same poll gives SDP-led coalition chances to win almost 40 percent of the vote, creating blowout on May 17th.

If Kerum actually loses mayoral race, this means that his political career is in deep trouble. Instead of charismatic local leader, he could be reduced to insignificant second-fiddle in City Council, very much like ill-fated Velo misto list.

Josip Kregar is actually faring much worse in Zagreb, despite increasing enthusiasm of his supporters. Phone poll conducted by Večernji list (again sample of 450 potential voters) give Milan Bandić, current mayor and SDP candidate 33.8 percent (44 percent excluding undecided). Kregar can expect only 23.1 percent (30.3 percent) which means that he would to compensate 14-percent deficite if he is beat Bandić in second round. This is very unlikely, because third-placed HDZ candidate Jasen Mesić (12 percent, excluding undecided) gathers voters who are unlikely to vote for Kregar, increasingly painted as "Yugo-Communist" cadre in mainstream Croatian media.

Same poll, on the other hand, points to SDP blowout in the race for City Assembly. With 37.6 percent support, SDP candidates' list - which, among others, includes Croatian Pensioners' Party (HSU) - could expect absolute majority in City Assembly, since with undecided excluded this gives whopping 53.4 percent support. (Source: Zoran Oštrić at Pollitika.com). Kregar could also comfort himself with his list actually entering City Assembly - achievement that seems doable only to HDZ candidates' list (and, arguably, independent list of Tatjana Holjevac).  Two parties that, until recently, represented Croatian political mainstream - centrist HNS and far right HSP - are not going to pass 5 percent tresshold, and thus are going to be excluded from City Assembly.

If SDP doesn't make absolute majority, his most likely post-election coalition partner is Kregar, despite the reason that most of Kregar's support comes from the utter disgust with Bandić and his policies.

Split Mayoral Race Gets Its First DUI Incident

How could Split mayoral election pass without alcohol-related incident? In Zagreb, two major candidates - Milan Bandić and Josip Kregar - had their share of alcohol-related issues. Bandić had its infamous Driving Under Influence moment in the past, while Kregar happens to be subject of malicious whisper campaign based on his alleged love of drinking.

In Split, the media dogs have to settle with the father of Ranko Ostojić, SDP candidate. Last night he took few drinks too many and hit traffic lights with his car. Ostojić Junior's comments to Jutarnji list hinted at press conference that would show local police and its reports being abused for petty political purposes.

The incident is likely to delight increasingly passionate kerumistas, but future mayor of Split should be wise to abstain from any comment, since he had caused a major (and injury-causing) traffic incident himself.