Draxblog III

Slovenia vs. Croatia: First Blood Avoided

Yesterday's incident, during which Slovenian police arrested 59-year Croatian armed with five hand grenades at first looks just like an incident. An isolated incident, work of a troubled, disturbed, war-wounded mind whose alleged intentions - blowing up Slovenian prime minister Borut Pahor - should be described as nothing more than madness.

Media from both sides of the border are mostly trying to calm things down. Slovenia has economic interests in Croatia, as well as plenty of tourists on Croatian beaches. Croatia would also be ill-served by Slovenian-Croatian conflict escalating into spillage of blood.

Yet, this incident was something that simply waited to happen. You can't simply inflame chauvinism by blaming Slovenian neighbours for all the ills that have struck Croatia - including resignation of prime minister Ivo Sanader - and expect such chauvinism to stay in the realms of usually harmless ethnic jokes. Push anti-Slovenian line hard enough and there would be madmen ready to "solve" that problem with the same methods political problems were solved in 1990s.

Thankfully, no blood was spilled. But it could have been, and very easily. Josip Zagajski (the alleged terrorist in question) tried to set hand grenades off while being apprehended. If he died in subsequent explosion, he could have provided anti-Slovenian chauvinists with a martyr figure. If Slovenian policeman or policemen died, anti-Croatian chauvinists from the other side of the border would have new martyrs, while Croatia would be branded as a nation of lunatic terrorists, never worthy of EU entry.

This incident could be something of a waking call for politicians, or at least those more sensible on the both sides of the border. What looks like a petty little border dispute - or one of many topics in EU internal debates over enlargments - could easily escalate into something unimaginable. Just as some seemingly petty constitutional squabbles of late 1980s ended with mass graves being dug around Srebrenica.

 

Getting Nastier

Dispute between Croatia and Slovenia is, as times go by, getting nastier and nastier. Relations between two nations, who were, until very recently, supposed to be natural allies, have sunk to levels that could easily compare to relations between Croatia and Serbia in early 1990s.

Probably nothing shows how situation deteriorated than this column by eminent Croatian journalist Boris Dežulović. Former member of famous Feral Tribune trio and hardly a nationalist, Dežulović can't avoid being disturbed with similarities between today's Slovenia and Serbia under Milošević.

If someone enlightened like Dežulović comes to such conclusions, it is easy to imagine how the escalating conflict would look to the great unwashed masses on the southern side of Croatian-Slovenian border. Especially with combination of economic crisis and ruling party willing to embrace atavistic chauvinism in order to cling to power.

EU? What EU?

Few days ago Ivo Sanader in Sabor said that it really didn't matter when Croatia would join EU. Those words were followed by thunderous applause by members of Sabor belonging to ruling coalition as well as opposition.

In other words, Ivo Sanader does one of the most spectacular U-turns in recent history of Croatia. Until now, speedy accession to EU was the goal towards anything should be sacrificed. Now, "it really doesn't matter" when Croatia will join. From that to "it really doesn't matter whether Croatia joins" is a rather short way.

Jelena Lovrić in her Jutarny list column is angry, although it shouldn't surprise anyone. Few years ago, that columnist, known for her leftist orientation, surprise many when endorsing Ivo Sanader at the expense of Ivica Račan. The reason was simple - when it came to joining EU, Ivica Račan mainly talked the talk, while Sanader walked the walk.

This time, however, pro-European policy in Croatia looks like damaged goods. There are many reasons for that - Slovenian-Croatian conflict which starts resembling relations with Serbia in 1990s; local elections that could be won only by playing nationalist card and, finally, EU not looking like land of milk and honey in these hard economic times.

Ahtisaari Is Coming

Croatia has agreed for Matti Ahtissari to head special mediation in border dispute with Slovenia. His arrival doesn't bode well for Croatian territorial integrity, at least judging by the experiences of Croatia's eastern neighbour.

Of course, small patch of sea and couple of border villages aren't the same as someone's historic heartland, but I can expect inevitable Schadenfreude among the public of Croatian Consolation when Sanader does indeed capitulate towards Slovenian demands.

Taking the Break from EU Accession

There are few politicians in Croatia I actually like, and even fewer of them are those whom I like more now than I liked before. One of such notable exceptions in Vesna Škare-Ožbolt whose work as judiciary minister in Ivo Sanader's cabinet I used to criticise on this blog. After being unceremoniously dumped by Sanader in 1996, Škare-Ožbolt transformed herself from overambitious and publicity-seeking member of incompent government into formidable voice of the Croatian opposition. One of the means for such transformation was blog Funky politika (Funky politics in Croatian) in which she commented on current Croatian affairs in a very effective way.

One of her more interesting posts advocates policy shift which was taboo among mainstream Croatian politicians - abandnoment of EU accession process. Škare-Ožbolt claims that the means in which Croatia try to become part of EU aren't justified with end. In other words, joining EU *at all cost* is against Croatian interests. If that cost implies public humiliations, economic ruin or loss of territory, Croatian government and political establishment would sooner or later have to say "enough and enough" and end the negotiations.

Škare-Ožbolt, of course, doesn't advocate abandoment of Europe. Instead, Croatia should "take a break" from accession business and use time to put its own house in order first.

Short History of Slovenian-Croatian Conflict

There are precious few English-language blogs dedicated to Croatia. One of those is Croatian Crescent, which gives a short account of relations between Croatia and Slovenia in past two decades, titled "From Ally to Enemy". Thanks to that blog, I'm spared from having to familiarise non-Croatian and non-Slovenian readers with that boring, depressing, yet increasingly disturbing topic. Part 1, Part 2 and Part 3 here.

Gotovina Update: Bitter Pills

 Sunday rally in Split was slightly over the expectations, but definitely below the spectacle provided by anti-government demonstators four years ago.

Split mayor Želimir Puljić (Zeljimir Puljic) and prime minister's brother and Split-Dalmatia County prefect Ante Sanader were booed, but the most hostile (and for many the most shocking) event was the speech of Željko Strize (Zeljko Strize), head of Kaštela (Kastela) war veterans organisation. In his speech accused bishops of "yielding to pressure" and stated that the Church these days lacked people like Cardinal Stepinac and Cardinal Franjo Kuharić (Franjo Kuharic).

Needless to say, Strize was lambasted for this sacrilege in pro-government media. But this represents a historic moment for Croatia - for the first time Church was criticised from the Right.

Church has lately flexed a lot of muscles. The most recent example being Sanader's government revoking permits for Omen 666 shoot and banishing production over alleged grave desecration. Many speculate that the price for Church backing Sanader is going to be much higher than banning shops from working on Sunday - the abortion could be the next target.

A day after Split rally, Croatian public had to swallow another bitter pill, this time in form of Ante Gotovina having to listen to indictment being simultaneously translated in Serbian (which is only a dialect of "Bosnian-Serb-Croatian" in ICTY officially terminology). State-run HRT and German-owned RTL Televizija decided to hide this humiliation by hiring their own translators during the live coverage. Nova TV, on the other hand, used ICTY's translation and its anchor Mirjana Hrga spent half of the broadcast apologising to the more sensitive sections of the audience.

After these events, first day of trial against Milan Martić (Milan Martic), former president of "Krajina" and a man who publicly admitted bombing Zagreb in 1995, came as a godsend for Sanader and many sections of Croatian public.

 

Gotovina Update: Pretty Flags, Pretty Flames

 Arrest of Ante Gotovina served as a catalyst for the public spectacle that had been widely expected, only not so soon - the very first burning of European Union flag in Croatia.

The performance artists belonged to the group of Zadar high school students protesting Gotovina's arrest in Zadar. During their demonstrations they also stoned city administration and local SDP offices. The nearby Zadar area also experienced two nights of tires and garbage dump torching, as well as logs being thrown to the roads, which had resulted in number of traffic accidents.

The rest of Croatia is reacting to this news with relative calm. Gospić (Gospic) and Osijek saw two more orderly public protests with couple hundreds of participants. Another protest in Zadar brought couple of thousands participants today.

All this looks like a storm in teacup compared with the events following indictment of Croatian Army general Mirko Norac four years ago. This impression is most likely to be even more obvious after tomorrow's great demonstration in Split.

Four years ago Norac's indictment brought some 150,000 men to what would later be remembered as the greatest public protest in history of Croatia. Tomorrow's organisers are going to be very happy if they gather only tenth of that number.

One of the participants is definitely not going to be Ivo Sanader who, four years ago appeared on Riva and attacked Ivica Račan (Ivica Racan) and his left-centre government for allowing the mere thought of Croatian Army officers being arrested and extradited to Hague.

Sanader can also rely on otherwise staunchly pro-Gotovina Church. Their representatives called for calm.

The most surprising endorsement of Sanader came from Marko Perković "Thompson" (Marko Perkovic "Thompson"),  Croatian musician whose "Jasenovac i Gradiška Stara" (Jasenovac i Gradiska Stara) fame was preceded by songs praising Ante Gotovina and his flight and accusing former government of betraying Croatia with its co-operation with ICTY. In his statement "Thompson" said that he would not sing at tomorrow's rally and he also supported government.

Most mainstream observers, after digesting initial shock, are trying to play down the story. Some point to Serbia and try to portray its failure to apprehend Radovan Karadžić (Radovan Karadzic) and Ratko Mladić (Ratko Mladic) as the proof of Croatian police and intelligence services' efficiency and inherent superiority to its Serbian peers. Others are looking forward to severe economic, diplomatic and any other nasty consequences of Serbia's failure to fulfil its Hague obligations - a fate Croatia was, in their mind, very wise to evade.

Of course, if Karadžić and Mladić are arrested in near future, Sanader's spin doctors have already prepared a campaign designed to portray Gotovina as an innocent man who could never be put in the same basket with those two and his legal troubles as mere "technicality" that could be solved through Sanader's brilliant diplomacy. Slobodna Dalmacija already published an article about Carla del Ponte's letter that had allegedly promised Gotovina's release and trial in Croatia as an exchange for Croatian government's full co-operation in his arrest.

In the meantime, first polls indicate that some 60 % of all Croatians see Gotovina's arrest as "bad news". Some 43 % believe that he will be acquitted in Hague, while 43 % believe that he will be pronounced guilty. Other, more sinister, measurement of popular sentiment could be found on Croatian walls, recently "decorated" with chauvinistic graffiti.

Gotovina Aftermath - Day of Mourning, Night of Rage?

This day is one of the more "interesting" (in a Chinese proverb sense of a word) days in recent Croatian history. One of those days most Croatians would like never to happen or to erase from their memory.

Under normal circumstances, someone could blog whether today's arrest is a good or bad thing for Croatia. But, circumstances are, at least today, far from normal.

Tonight government offices in Markov Trg in Zagreb were stoned by few hundred die-hard pro-Gotovina demonstrators. According to first reports, police managed to "establish control" after one hour of physical confrontation.

The only reason I bothered to update this blog is an assumption that my regular readers could interpret my silence in the wrong ways.

 

Austrian Stable Boy

 

Ivo Sanader's tenure as the Croatia's most popular politician didn't last more than two months. The decision to sign treaty giving lavish compensation to former Croatian Volksdeutsche in Austria appears to be one of the worst miscalculations of his mandate, one that, unlike most of his previous fiascos, can't be the subject of spin by friendly pro-EU media.

The main reason is in its foreign policy implication. While Sanader's handling of domestic affairs in Croatia is complete mess, Croatian Sanaderites had perfect excuse for that in his need to concetrate on "more pressing" matter of foreign policies and bringing Croatia into EU. This isn't the case now. Berlusconi's government, who had used to be very friendly to Sanader, is now expressing "outrage" over not being "treated equally" - in other words, they want some 200,000 "esuli" - Italians deported from east coast of Adriatic following WW2 - to have the same privileges given to 60,000 Austrian Volksdeutcshe.

So, Sanader is now faced with two options. He could accept Italian demands and bring even more financial and political burden to Croatia. Or he could refuse and thus insult one of EU bigger players, thus prolonging Croatia's voyage to EU and basis of his political legacy. Many in Croatia are now reminded tthat Czech Republic and Poland entered EU despite rejecting similar German and Austrian demands - this makes Sanader looks less of a foreign policy genius and brilliant statesman than the builders of his personality cult in certain newspapers tried to portray.

Good thing for Sanader is the fact the treaty isn't likely to be ratified in Sabor. The deal is so unpopular in Croatia that opinion surveys showed dramatic 10-15 % drop of popularity for Sanader and HDZ, with President Stjepan Mesić (Stjepan Mesic) and SDP easily coming on top. Their opposition is joined by HSP and those from the hard right, which again reveals Sanader's paper-thin majority in Sabor.

Opposition to the deal has less to do with the fact whether Croatians love Austrians or not, and more with Austrians clearly enjoying preferential treatment compared not only compared with some other nationals, but to Croatian citizens. The most unprivileged of all are Croatian pensioners - the governments still owes them huge debt based on 1990s Constitutional Court verdict. Tudjman's, Račan's (Racan's) and, finally, Sanader's government postponed the enforcement of that verdict, hoping that most of its beneficiaries will die. The latest scheme, for example, involves opportunity for pensioners to give up half of their claims in exchange for receiving another half in two years, while the others may get it all, but in ten years.

Most of Croatian public - even those "liberals" who supported Sanader as "option without alternative" - couldn't digest the comparisons between such cynical cold-heartedness for poorest of Croatians and huge generosity for Austrians - citizens of one of EU's most prosperous countries.

Some of the Croatian media even began to dig behind the story and one of the least surprising revelations pointed to Austrian ambassador to Croatia as one of the potential beneficiaries of the treaty. Sanader is also well-known for building huge network of contacts in Austrian political and economic establishment even before coming into Croatian politics.

In some other countries, Sanader would have been lucky to come out of this with mere resignation of non-confidence vote. In Croatia, however, he is going to ride out this storm by having the treaty defeated in Sabor and thus creating the illusion of listening to the public.

Any political damage for Sanader and his party is going to be short-term. But it is nevertheless discomforting to see Croatian prime minister fitting into ancient Serbian propaganda stereotypes of Croats as "spineless cowards" and "Austrian stable boys".