Draxblog III

Swine Flu, Conspiracy Theories and Human Stupidity

Dragutin Lesar, indepedent member of Sabor (elected on HNS list before parting ways with Radimir Čačić and Vesna Pusić) and former union activist, wrote a blog post about swine flu called "Swine flu and Human Stupidity". In it he suggest that the latest swine flu pandemic is far from global disaster as portrayed in media, and more of a clever way for US pharmaceutical companies to make money. Lesar's conspiracy theories aren't new or particularly original, but it is interesting to see them becoming part of mainstream discourse, since Lesar was hardly among Sabor members that could be mistaken for Tinfoil brigade.

Speaking about human issues, I can't not to mention javno.hr and its comment on swine flu, written by Amalija Šašek. In it she expresses same sentiments like Lesar, only backed by some more data gathered from Internet, including connections between first major swine flu outbreak and Donald Rumsfeld's first tenure as US defence secretary. She claims that the flu vaccinations coincided with presidential campaign and that Ford gained "extra support" and thus became president.

The article was published yesterday and it is still available in its original form. Apparently nobody cares about major Croatian news website claiming that Ford won presidential elections in 1976.

Specter of Defections Not Haunting Croatia

America is going to change beyond recognition due to Barack Obama now having long-coveted goal of fillibuster-proof Senate majority that allows Democrats to do whatever they want and Republicans being reduced to insignificant perpetual minority - very much like Communists in post-war Italy and SDP in contemporary Croatia. With 60 senators, demographic trends and full support of media, Democratic majority in USA seems permanent and left-wing agenda is going to be pursued and achieved with intensity few people would have dreamed possible only few years ago.

However, I don't think that Croatian media are going to pay much attention to this event, most likely because the person responsible doesn't fit the narrative of miracle-working American president that was built among this country's media establishment and parts of public that actually care about those things (and who almost always happen to belong to Limousine Liberal Left). Specter was Republican and, as such, he represented the side what most Croatians see as Irreedemable Evil, therefore he is not worthy of being mentioned in positive context, even when he does the right thing.

Furthermore, the way Obama got his supermajority - elected representative switching parties -  looks very more like the prosaic reality of Croatian politics than idealistic Bright New World of Obama's America. In most cases, those defections were in direction different from Specter's - from left-wing to right-wing. In almost any cases those defections - whicha are quite common in regional and local assemblies - allowed for regional and local administration to look quite different from what voters had elected, thus creating widespread dissatisfaction and revulsion towards politics in general.

Specter's story might indicate that things aren't that different in America - which is, especially in Obama's time - supposed to be positive role model for Croatian politics. Croatian media, therefore, will do everything in their power to ignore and downplay the story and spare the public from another painful shattering of illusions.

 

Annus Horribilis

Predicting future is always thankless task, but it is hard not to conclude that 2009 will be the hardest year for Croatia since the war. Tourist season, which had to magically rescue Croatia from global economic crisis, is probably killed by swine flue pandemic. It doesn't matter whether the oubreak is genuine global killer in the rank of Black Death and Spanish influenza. The publicity will do enough to create two or three months of panic and thus scare any potential tourists from Croatian shores.

June 1st - when the last round of local elections end and campaign promises have to succumb to reality - is going to be grim day indeed.

Slippery Slopes of Carpathian Mountains

Well, it had to happen sooner or later. According to Professor Valerian Ciocel, one of the legal experts taking part in Romanian legal reforms, new Criminal Code of that EU member country is going to decriminalise incest. Instead of being jailed, "consenting adults" caught in incest will be given psychiatric treatment without criminal records.

This story appears to be rather old, but it was picked by mainstream Croatian media only yesterday, most probably due to extra publicity created by Fritzl verdict. In any case, the timing for the revelation of this new initiative is worst possible. I can already imagine headlines like "Romanians Would Legalise Fritzl".

Most comments in Croatia, so far, has descended into usual ethnic stereotyping of an Eastern, Orthodox and therefore "barbaric and un-European nation". Many claim that the Romania was forced to do it due to widespread incest among members of their Roma community.

Most people who would try to comment on this without ethnic stereotyping are going to be social conservatives. For them, this initiative is going to be long-sought Holy Graal - convincing argument about liberal legislation paving the way for all kinds currently unacceptable sexual behaviours.

Just as homosexuality was first decriminalised, then legalised and tolerated by being viewed as a relationship between consenting adults, so would incest. The argument about "slippery slope" now looks more convincing.

On the other hand, one of the most important and convincing arguments for the preservation of incest as social taboo - likelihood of genetically deformed offspring of incestous pairs - was weakened by contraxeption, the very same technological advances that made sexual revolution possible.

Romania (and the rest of the "enlightened and progressive" Western world) took that road, but I still don't see legalisation and social acceptance of incestous pairs any time soon. The economic crisis - if it is as bad as many predict - would turn most people more conservative for at least decade or two. It would probably take three or four decades before constitutional amendments for sibling marriages in California.