So, this is it. After completing my civic duty (and explaining my options in previous posts) I decided to provide something of a live blog to all those non-Croatians interested in the results of our nation's fifth presidential election. There is less than an hour before polling stations close and before Nova TV and RTL Televizija publish exit polls. I will try to provide basic election data with my first impressions.
18:14 So far, the first real numbers someone can operate with deal with the turnout. The story so far - the turnout is very low, much lower than during 2005 election. Official data for 16:00 CET give 33.97 percent turnout, which is low compared with 41.92 percent turnout in 2005.
Conventional wisdom tells that the low turnout benefits the establishment parties and right wing, because their voters tend to be more disciplined. That should mean good news for candidates like Hebrang, Primorac, Bandić (and possibly Vidošević). However, the turnout is higher in Zagreb than in rural areas. Turnout in Zagreb is higher than during mayoral elections. So, this might indicate better results for candidates with strong electoral base in Croatian capital, including some that belong to left-wing, like Vesna Pusić.K
I suspect that there would be some surprises among right wing candidates. My guess is that Miroslav Tudjman might perform better than in polls, together with Hebrang. They might snatch some votes from Bandić. Whether this is enough for Bandić to lose 2nd round ticket to Vidošević remains to be seen.
18:45 Word from one of headquarters - via Twitter - tells of exit polls indicating tight three-way race for 2nd place between Vidošević, Bandić and Hebrang.
It seems likely that the actual results might favour Bandić, because exit polls don't cover Bosnia-Herzegovina (which 2 percents of swing votes).
19:00 - Nova TV brings surprise - Josipović 32,7 percent; Bandić 14,2 percent (which isn't surprise); surprise is Hebrang with 12,1 perecent at 3rd place; major blow to Vidošević with 11,1 percent
19:02 - Nova TV report from Josipović headquarters. "Nobody here was biting nails about results". They knew they were getting into 2nd round.
19:07 - 2nd tier candidates - Vesna Pusić 7,5 %, Dragan Primorac - 5,9 %, Damir Kajin - 4 %, Miroslav Tuđman - 3,4 %, Josip Jurčević - 2,6 %, Boris Mikšić - 2,1 %, Vesna Škare Ožbolt -1,6 %, Slavko Vukšić - 0,6 %
19:20 - Vesna Pusić says that she expected entry into 2nd round with 60 % turnout. "We must do something to increase turnout in the future".
19:21 - Nikica Gabrić, head of Primorac's campaign, says that he expects to rise over 10 %.
19:23 - Head of Vidošević's campaign also blames bad results on poor turnout.
19:24 - Ratko Maček, head of Hebrang's campaign, claims that Bosnia-Herzegovina would tilt election towards Hebrang.
19:39 - Nova TV reports sky high turnout in Herzegovina.
19:45 - Village of Majići boycotted the election because they didn't receive proper road connection from government.
19:50 - Mislav Bago from Nova TV announces new, apparently more complete and accurate exit polls.
20:00 - New exit polls sh
21:21 - Back to blogging after longer pause. Word ("with major possibility of spin") via Twitter is that Bandić's people saw 300 K vote sample that puts Vidošević into 2nd round. You should take this with *huge* grain of salt.
21:55 - Both Bandić's head of campaign Danko Ljuština and Hebrang are certain that they are going into 2nd round. Hebrang claims that right-wing candidates won more than left-wing. Vidošević didn't concede yet, but he says that he is disappointed by low turnout.
21:32 - According to 50K votes counted in Zagreb, mayor Milan Bandić won only 15 percent. Winner is with 35 percent Ivo Josipović, while Vidošević is third with 11 percent.
21:37 - Zoran Milanović, chairman of SDP, can't hide his pleasure over defeat of his former comrade Bandić in Zagreb.
22:18 - First unofficial and incomplete data leaked from State Electoral Commission. According to them, Bandić carried Bosnia-Herzegovina, which makes him almost certain to enter 2nd round.
Data from Bandić's HQ - Josipović 31.12 %, Bandić 16.1 %, Hebrang 11.82 %, Vidošević 11.27 %, Pusić 7.52 %, Dragan Primorac 5.35 %
23:08 - Jutarnji list reports partial official results, based on 43 % polling stations - Josipović 32.07 %, Bandić 17.76 %. Hloverka Novak-Srzić in HRT election special also told about Josipović and Bandić being almost certain to enter 2nd round
00:10 - First official results, apparently 99.45 % votes processed. As expected, Josipović and Bandić enter 2nd round with 32.44 % and 14.84 % respectively. Hebrang is third with 12.01 % and Vidošević fourth with 11.33 %. The biggest disppoinbtment is record low turnout of 44.07 %.
00:46 - Milan Bandić in his speech attacked Ivo Josipović as "remotelly controlled by Milanović", while Josipović said that the next round would be "election between light and darkness". It looks like much more passionate campaign in 2nd round.
Andrija Hebrang accused four candidates - Vidošević, Hebrang, Jurčević and Tuđman - of "conspiring to split right wing vote". HDZ, according to RTL Televizija, decided not to endorse any of two remaining candidates.
00:56 - All three Croatian TV networks stopped their election night coverage. So, this blog will follow their example.
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