Ivo Sanader is now going strong. His party fared surprisingly well on the local elections, although it has less do with HDZ being particularly strong and more with SDP being tragically weak and incompetent. After the elections there are growing speculations about HDZ leader planning to succeed his rival Stipe Mesić at Pantovčak and thus become third President of Republic of Croatia.
Presidential elections are supposed to take place early next year, when Mesić's second term expires. Mesić, whose office was constitutionally emasculated a decade ago, is barred from seeking third term, but he nevertheless feels not only politically relevant, but also the best possible leader of broad left-wing coalition that could unseat HDZ and - which is more important - prevent ruling party from succumbing back to 1990s-style hardline nationalism.
His plans, however, could be destroyed by Sanader's presidential run. If Sanader runs for President, he is very likely to win - especially if SDP fields uncharismatic Ivo Josipović or compromised Ljubo Jurčić as their candidates. With Sanader in Pantovčak, Croatia would, for the first time since the end of Tuđman's era, have single party controling presidency (and that means army, diplomacy and intelligence services) together with the rest of executive branch. With Sabor held by firm coalition with other right-wing parties, and judiciary filled with Tuđman hardline loyalists, process of turning Croatia back to single-party state will be complete.
However, global economic crisis might have some political consequences in Croatia after all. Mainly, the state is bankrupt, being burdened with debt and government will be forced tomake some increasingly quick, unpopular and extremely painful budget cuts that would make life extremely miserable for the electorate. Sanader postponed such measures for almost six months in order to win elections. If he wants to win presidential elections, he would have to postpone austerity measures even further, making their final and inevitable application even harder and less popular.
There are speculations that Sanader decided to become president mainly in order to separate his charismatic and popular self from increasingly unpopular and visibly un-charismatic cabinet that would have to pay the piper at the polls in November 2011. Whoever succeeds Sanader as the head of cabinet must be weak, unpopular and uncharismatic; otherwise Sanader is in danger of nurturing backstabbing rival just as Tony Blair had Gordon Brown. Furthermore, in case Croatian opposition gets its stuff together and HDZ loses 2011 elections, Sanader could easily be insulated and constitutionally by new left-wing government.
Vesna Škare-Ožbolt on her blog speculates that HDZ and Sanader might prevent this scenario by pushing for early parliamentary elections, maybe even in Autumn. The opposition, and especially SDP, is so demoralised and financially exhausted after disappointment on local elections that it simply won't be ready with another quick clash with HDZ electoral machine. If the parliamentary elections are held early, it is possible that HDZ will end with more Sabor seats than now - and maybe even with something close to absolute majority. It is almost certain that the elections held now would bring HDZ more seats than in November 2011, when the effects of global recessions can't be postponed or ignored.
Škare-Ožbolt thinks that the biggest victim of new HDZ plan could be its main and most loyal coalition partner - Croatian Peasant Party (HSS). Both HDZ and HSS are members of European People's Party, both have centre-right and conservative ideology and their partnership makes perfect sense. HSS in 2007 had small percentage of votes, but big enough to become kingmaker and allow Sanader another mandate. New leadership of HSS under Josip Frišćić is more loyal to HDZ than his predecessors like Zlatko Tomčić were to Ivica Račan and his left-wing government.
HSS expressed its loyalty by dropping all "problematic" sections of their 2007 election platform, like the protection of Adriatic or referendum about Croatian NATO membership. HSS with its strong local and regional organisations also allowed HDZ to triumph on local and regional elections. However, HSS in return got very little, and HSS electoral base - farmers - got even less. Some of them recently even protested in Zagreb by driving tractors and demanding better subsidies. Božidar Pankretić, agriculture minister and HSS cadre most known for his pro-HDZ views and loyalty to Sanader, said that the government simply hadn't got any money for that. Jadranka Kosor, Sanader's HDZ lieutenant and deputy prime minister, on the other hand, promised farmers whatever they wanted. In the end, HSS became humiliated.
Škare-Ožbolt thinks that Sanader through this and other humiliations wants to provoke the fall of his own government and thus force new elections. This infernal plan looks intriguing, but it underestimates HSS willingness to swallow anything in order to stay in power. Early elections could also have unforeseen consequences and unpleasant surprises for HDZ - like the loss of its Dubrovnik and Vukovar stronghold experienced few weeks ago.
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