Those who have read this blog one month ago are probably aware that I have endorsed Željko Jerkov (Zeljko Jerkov) and his list of independent candidates for City of Split Assembly.
Jerkov and his colleagues have won 4 out 25 seats, thus becoming kingmakers, since both SDP-dominated list and HDZ failed to win necessary majority of votes. After one month of negotiations with both camps Jerkov and his Velo Misto list decided to side with HDZ. New mayor of Split is going to be Želimir Puljić (Zelimir Puljic), first HDZ mayor after eight years.
HDZ and Velo Misto, however, are three votes short of necessary majority, which is, in most likelihood going to be provided by one representative of far right HSP and two members of HSU – pensioners' party - who had defected from SDP-dominated coalition. In case two elderly gentlemen remain loyal to their allies, there is another option of 3 councilmen from coalition of minor right-wing parties that make HSP look moderate in comparison.
Needless to say, this isn't particularly good prospect for Split. Puljić – leader of local HDZ – doesn't have a reputation of a competent administator and he owes his position within party more to his loyalty to Sanader than charisma or any other personal qualities. It is very likely that his term in office is going to be much worse than other three HDZ mayors – Onesin Cvitan, Petar Slapničar (Petar Slapnicar) and Nikola Grabić (Nikola Grabic). The most insulting thing in all of this is the fact that HDZ got trashed at the polls only to win power in Split through what many Croatians call "prostitution".
Yet, this decision does makes perfect sense from the standpoint of Velo Misto. Their ambitious programme, which includes hundreds of millions of euros in new projects and privatisation of city services, is impossible to realise without support of central government, which is controled by HDZ. If they chose to stick with SDP, they could kiss all those programs goodbye, at least until the next general elections.
If they insisted on their initial plan – to have broad HDZ-SDP coalition which would deprive them of responsibility for "prostitution" – they could have forced new elections, but those elections are likely to result in even lower turnout that could benefit parties with solid, disciplined voters. Velo Misto, as relatively recent phenomenon in Split politics, doesn't appear to enjoy that luxury.
So, am I disappointed with this developments? Yes.
Am I surprised? No.
Am I regretting my public endorsement? No.
Some, like those leaving comments on blog of Tatjana Holjevac, indepedent candidate who have just returned Milan Bandić (Milan Bandic) into mayor seat in agreb, might feel angry and cheated. But only those who are completely naive could believe that Jerkov's and Holjevac's decisions aren't the options that they should consider before voting on May 15th.
If someone has to be blamed for this decision, it is not Željko Jerkov or his list. Those who should be blamed are those who didn't vote for him, thus depriving him of majority in City Council and making such coalitions necessity.
But the greatest culprit is SDP whose leaders chose uncharismatic Ljubomir Urlić (Ljubomir Urlic) to lead their ticket, and, which is even worse, took HSU under their wings, thus providing their HDZ rivals with future allies in City Council. Even worse, they rejected Slobodan Beroš (Slobodan Beros), former mayor whose administration had been one of the better in recent history. Beroš had to run as an indepedendent candidate, barely squeezing into City Council.
In present state of affairs – when mayors aren't elected directly and when Proportional Misrepresentation makes post-election haggling a political necessity – this was the best we could hope for.
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