Draxblog III

Croatian 2011 Election Live Blogging

00:43 - Most Croatian TV stations are ending their election coverage, so I'll follow their example and sign off.

00:35 - Milanović made victory speech; simple and short.

00:07 - State electoral commission is holding usual midnight press conference. Based on latest data, Kukuriku has 78, HDZ 45.

00:05 - Jadranka Kosor failed to congratulate Milanović in her concession speech.

23:52 - Milan Bandić, current mayor of Zagreb and former presidential candidate, barely won 2 % of votes in Zagreb. He left his election headquarters at 23:00 with most pundits considering his political career all but over.

23:47 - Jadranka Kosor conceding and spinning this into moral victory; HDZ fared better than in 2000; it is "not on its knees" and "it would honourably serve Croatians as opposition; blames hostile media for defeat.

23:13 - Jadranka Kosor arrived to HDZ headquarters; she would enter history as first woman in Croatian politics to fail in election for prime minister after failing to be elected for president.

23:12 - After 40 % votes, Kukuriku leads with 78, HDZ 46, Croatian Labour 7, HDSSB 5, Grubišić 2, HSS 2.

22:54 - HSLS overwhelmingly won in Finland. According to official data, 1 Croatian citizen voted. 1 vote was for HSLS.

22:48 - Tudjman and Račan are back in Sabor. Miroslav Tudjman, son of Franjo Tudjman, is elected on HDZ ticket while Ivan Račan, son of Ivica Račan, is elected on SDP (Kukuriku) ticket.

22:17 - Ivan Jakovčić, leader of IDS, said that "good manners commands him" to congratulate his archenemy Plinio Cuccurin, leader of Istrian regional Ladonja party, on his very likely debut entry into Sabor.

22:07 - Darko Milinović, HDZ vicechairman, is first to concede defeat.

21:55 - Jadranka Sloković and Čedo Prodanović, attorneys who represent former prime minister and HDZ leader Ivo Sanader in his criminal trial, arrived at Kukuriku headquarters to celebrate.

21:46 - According to newest data, Marijana Petir is going below election tresshold.

21.44 - Dragutin Lesar, leader of Croatian Labour Party, says that his party is going to be "Kukuriku's nightmare"

21:43 - Latest projections, based on preliminary reults: Kukuriku 77; HDZ 50 (47 home, 3 in diaspora)

21:21 - HDZ can comfort itself by maintaing its grip among expatriate voters. It won all 3 seats reserved for Croatian diaspora.

21:11 - More updates, based on 6 % sample; Kukuriku 76, HDZ 46, Croatian Labour Party 6; HDSSB 6; Grubišić 3; HSS 3; Ljubo Jurčić 1; HSLS 1; Croatian Party of Rights Ante Starčević 1.

21:09 - First revisions, apparently based on preliminary results. Kukuriku wins 76, HDZ wins 46 votes. This means that Kukuriku won't win absolute majority.

20:35 - Ljubo Jurčić, Croatian economist who used to be SDP candidate for prime minister four years ago, conceded that his candidates' list won't pass into Sabor; this must be hard night for him because some of the most recent polls indicated one or two seats.

20:25 - Judging by reaction among Croatian Twitter intelligentsia, many are apoplectyc over Marijana Petir, HSS female politician known for her hard-core religious ultra-conservative views, staying in Sabor.

20:24 - There is still some time for drama. Smaller parties that fared well in exit polls might end below electoral tresshold after real results, while those who lagged behind might get into Sabor after all.

20:10 - Business.hr proclaimed Croatian Labour Party to be the biggest winners of election; party that exists mere 21 months shares No.3 spot with HDSSB.

20:04 - First official preliminary results are scheduled after 21:00.

19:52 - Don Ivan Grubišić, retired Catholic priest who ran independent list, is pleased with the results. His expected one seat, but won two and "third is near election tresshold" in IX District. He is less pleased with Kukuriku "having monopoly on power". He said that he would stick by his pre-election promises and make no coalitions with anybody.

19:45 - Nova TV updated its general projections - Kukuriku 82, HDZ 40, Ivan Grubišić 2, Croatian Labour Party 2, HSS 2, Croatian Party of Rights Ante Starčević 1, Ladonja (indepedent group from Istria) 1.

19:41 - According to regional poll, HDZ (and Kerum) got clobbered in X district (southern parts of Split and Dalmatia) - Kukuriku 6, HDZ-HGS 5, Ivan Grubišić 2, Croatian Party of Rights Ante Starčević 1.

19:34 - Željko Kerum believes that HDZ would win more seats than in exit polls. Also believes HDZ to win in IX and X district. He is ready to congratulate the winner and he would stick with HDZ if forced into opposition, because "he gave his word".

19:30 - Večernji list published first regional exit poll projection - Electoral District 1 (City of Zagreb): Kukuriku 10, HDZ 3 and 1 Croatian Labour Party.

19:20 - If those exit polls reflect genuine results, HSLS is going to be without Sabor seats for the first time in post-Communist history; HSP (Croatian Party of Rights), which used to be third largest party on five years ago, is also out.

19:11 - Andrija Jarak of Nova TV reports that most HDZ ministers gathered at their party headquarters are in sour mood and "there is no sign of usual euphoria".

19:10 - Branko Bačić, HDZ general secretary, doesn't trusts exit polls. He believes that HDZ would win more seats.

19:06 - It seems that X electoral district - Dalmatia - turned its back both on HDZ and SDP, and that their voters chose Ivan Grubišić (left) and Croatian Party of Rights - Ante Starčević.

19:01 - Nova TV exit poll; Kukuriku 83; HDZ 40; Croatian Labour Party 6; HDSSB 6; HSS 2; independent list of Ivan Grubišić 2; Croatian Party of Rights - Ante Starčević 1.

18:56 - Nova TV published first poll, although not one related to actual election results, According to that poll, 73 % of voters made their mind before the start of campaign; only 2 % actually changed their mind. This was probably the most inconsequential electoral campaign in Croatian history.

18:53 - Sociologist Dražen Lalić, guest in RTL Televizija studio, isn't happy with 63 % turnout estimates. He describes constant fall in election turnouts as failure of Croatian democracy.

18:48 - GONG, Croatian election watchdog, reports less problems on polling stations compared with four years ago, but more complaints about ethnic minority voters who elect 8 special representatives to Sabor. Those 8 seats aren't likely to change the general result, though.

18:40 - Data from neighbouring Slovenia indicate larger turnout in that country's election, althought not by much - 48 % compared with Croatia's 46 %.

18:26 - Starting tonight's live blogging less than half hour before close of polls. The weather in Croatia was cloudy. Data published based on 16:00 reports indicate worse turnout than four years ago. Some estimates indicate 60 % turnout. Regionally, turnout appears to be stronger in Dalmatia, which is supposed to be HDZ stronghold; it seems that HDZ would fare better than indicated in polls.

Croatian 2011 Election - Running Against Silence

I'm breaking my (English language) blogging silence again. Just like on some previous occasions, it is because of the elections. Today, just like before, I am trying to record this post before the official start of electoral silence.

Croatia is going to hold parliamentary elections on Sunday. This is the seventh election since the introduction of multi-party democracy and probably the last before Croatia becomes member of EU. Most of foreign media is going to ignore it, though. The election date coincides with two, arguably, more important parliamentary elections - in neighbouring Slovenia (which is the first case of two ex-YU republics having elections on same day since 1990) and in Russia.

Another reason why this election doesn't create much attention is in general mood of Croatian public. The campaign was short and rather uneventful, which could be explained with the effects of global economic crisis. Parties, even the ruling HDZ, simply don't have financial resources to match spectacle created during previous elections.

More important reason for the lack of electoral drama is, just like during 2010 presidential elections, is its general predictability. According to each and every relevant poll, HDZ is going to not only lose, but lose convincingly.

This major defeat - or the second general election lost during party's history - is generally being credited to series of scandals involving Ivo Sanader, former HDZ leader the first Croatian prime minister ever to end up in jail because of corruption. His annointed successor Jadranka Kosor, despite valiant and, at first, successful attempts to distance herself from her former mentor and reinvent herself as anti-corruption crusader, failed to reverse gradual, but unstoppable decline in her party's popularity. At the very end, just like the beginning of official campaign, major media - some of them being former Sanader's cheerleaders - turned against HDZ. Coup de grace was made by chief prosecutor Mladen Bajić who formally started quite publicised criminal proceedings against the party as legal entity.

Major benefactor of that decline was, of course, its main rival SDP. Reformed Communist party, which ran Croatia as part as sole non-HDZ government between 2000 and 2003, could now consider itself quite fortunate for narrowly losing 2007 elections and thus dodging the responsibility for the effects of global financial crisis. Bad economy, which probably had more to do with Sanader's mysterious resignation in July 2009 than any corruption scandal, even played some part in campaign. Faced with continous slide into poverty and almost inevitable Greek-style collapse in very near future, electorate and parties simply couldn't afford to ignore it for the sake of more popular topics like ethnic and WW2-era ideological divisions.

In such circumstances, SDP didn't have to do much to win elections. Its leader Zoran Milanović obviously learned some lessons after his major blunders in 2007. He hired PR managers who wisely advised him not to engage in any major public activity and simply let HDZ get buried under the weight of bad economy. Furthermore, leaders of SDP, unlike 2007, decided to strengthen the ticket by co-opting its traditional allies among left-centre parties - Croatian People's Party (HNS), Istrian Democratic Assembly (IDS) and Croatian Party of Pensioners. The latter was part of Sanader's governments until 2009, which clearly shows that the writing on the wall for HDZ stood for rather long time.

SDP and its allies - known as Kukuriku coalition - are projected to win between 79 and 85 among 151 seats of Croatian parliament. This appears to be clear and absolute majority, something no party or major coalition ever achieved since HDZ in 1995. This also means that Milanović, when he gets to business of forming government, won't have to negotiate with over-demanding minor parties and now infamous ethnic members of Sabor who represent ethnic minorities (including Serbs, which, dutifuly supported HDZ until the last day).

HDZ, on the other hand, can expect between 39 and 46 seats. The only ally that they managed to snatch is Split mayor Željko Kerum whose Croatian Civic Party (HGS) is on their tickets in two Dalmatian electoral districts. This was the marriage of convenience, made despite increasingly bad blood between Kerum and local HDZ organisation in Split. HDZ need Kerum's votes to avoid embarrassment of losing their traditional Dalmatian stronghold, while Kerum, like any good merchant, calculated that, based on gerrymandering, election tressholds and D'Hondt system of proportional representation, could win three safe seats on HDZ tickets instead of betting on a very shaky one seat if going alone.

The rest (between 12 and 25 seats, not including 8 reserved for ethnic minorities) is going to be snatched by other parties. Among them, those belonging to the left side of Croatian political spectrum appear to have more chances for success than those on the right. The most successful appears to be Croatian Labour Party, led by former union leader Radimir Čačić, independent MP who defected from HNS and who charmed many with his clever brand of left-wing populism. The Right (or what goes for "right wing" in Croatia if HDZ is considered "right centre") is, on the other hand, to suffer because of many split tickets led by narcissistic leaders; conservative rural-based HSS is going to be punished for not fulfilling its promises for the sake of seats in Sanader's cabinet. The only bright spot for Croatian right-wingers is Slavonia, stronghold of HDSBB, regionalist party founded by convicted war criminal Branimir Glavaš.

The Sunday's election is going to be followed by EU accession referendum. It was originally scheduled for mid-January, but Vesna Pusić, future foreign minister and one of the most enthusiastic Europhiles among Croatian political establishment, announced that it would be held in mid-February. Polls indicate comfortable victory for the Yes camp.

Despite a rather rare spectacle of government change - that occurred only three times in living memory (1990, 2000 and 2003) - there is very little enthusiasm among general public. Croatian experiment with democracy in past two decades left many of country's citizens deeply disappointed or increasingly cynical. There is palpable feeling that the election itself won't solve any of Croatia's problems and that the worst of economic crisis is yet to come. It is almost certain that the average Croatian would live much worse at the end of 2012 that at the end of 2011; it is very probable that he or she would live much worse in 2015 that today.

It is quite easy to imagine embittered voters to quickly turn their backs towards their weak and ineffectual saviours, just as they did in 2003. On the other hand, SDP might remain in power for the simple lack of alternative. Regardless of what happens, HDZ - still compromised and despised - is going to be the only relevant opposition party and thus serve convenient bogeyman for ineffectual new government. The only thing that could change this sorry state of affairs is some form of coherent alternative of status quo forming among those 12-25 representatives who would come from different political options. In some 48 hours from now we should know whether such hope has some basis in reality or not.