Draxblog III

Željko Kerum Announces Leaving Wife for Pregnant Mistress

Željko Kerum, controversial mayor of Split tonight again wrote new page of Croatian history by doing something nobody - at least no person of his stature or importance - ever did.

Tonight he was guest at talk show of TV Dalmacija, local TV station he owned. At the very end of the show he announced that he was leaving Ankica Kerum, his wife of 19 years - with whom he had a son and daughter - in order to live with his 24-year old mistress Fani Horvat, who expects his child. Kerum confirmed rumours - widely circulated during the election campaign - about mistress and added that he and Ms. Horvat had an affair for five years. He apologised to his family for having to go public with his news and added that he would never speak of this subject ever again.

Kerum's shocking announcement was even more shocking, considering that he nearly coincided with his suprise visit to Split's very first Tweetup, which was held at Joker shopping mall, the centre of his business empire.

This kind of announcement is completely new territory even for most experienced Croatian pundits and media experts, so it is almost pointless to speculate about eventual political consequences. Kerum's ambitions in national politics are already seriously compromised by his major faux pas at Nedjeljom u 2 talk show, and uniformly inimical national media won't make this event any easier for him. On the other hand, at least some voters might appreciate Kerum's brutal sincerity - so uncharacteristic for average Croatian politician.

Željko Kerum's New Party - First Impressions

Željko Kerum, mayor of Split, founded a new political party in Split. Ceremony was held in Sky restaurant, at the fourth floor of his Joker shopping centre in Split. The event was aired by TV Dalmacija, his local TV station and replayed twice during the day.

There are more reasons for such over-exposure by his media outlet than pure propaganda. By airing and recording that event, Kerum tried to prevent most of Croatian media - increasingly hostile due to his major faux pas at national television less than week ago - from distorting his words or the character of his party.

In his speech Kerum denied that he was "nationalist or racist", and explained that he only "gave true answer" to "provocative question" - the same answer that would truthfully tell "majority of Croats and Serbs". Then he tried to describe himself as "good man who always helped people", "that he was raised that way" and that his patriotism didn't include "hatred towards anyone". Trying to dispell the myth of Kerum as flaming Croatian bigot, mayor of Split reminded the audience of his independent candidates' list on May 2009 elections, that included ethnic Serbs and atheists.

Is this non-apology going to help Kerum get out of trouble? Probably not. Reputation of a bigot is easily gained and difficult to discard these days. In order to quash it, Kerum would have to employ all kinds of spectacular gestures like Sanader's attending of SDSS Orthodox Christmas party. Such gestures would be rejected as hypocrisy by his critics and interpreted as a sign of weakness by his followers. Kerum concluded that the best course is simply to contain the damage.

Controversy created by Kerum's "unfortunate remarks", on the other hand, again gave Croatian shallow media and commentariat perfect excuse not to report or comment on more important issues - character and platform of his new party and its eventual effect on Croatia's politics and future.

The first phrase that comes to mind after watching the birth of Kerum's party is "tabula rasa". Just like its founder, it lacks strong political or ideological foundation. Kerum himself admitted by claiming that "the people are disatisfied with two major parties" (HDZ and SDP) and "that the market" (for new parties) "has opened", allowing his new party to fill it. Kerum - as self-made "common man" without previous political career and experience - is going to fill the void created by widespread disappointment with Croatian political class. In doing so, he wouldn't be constrained by his political beliefs, logic or ideological consistency.

That inconsistency could be found in the name of party itself - Croatian Citizens Party (Hrvatska građanska stranka). On one hand, Kerum is forced to use name "Croatian" just like all those Croatian nationalist parties created in 1990, when Croatia was still part of Yugoslavia. On the other hand, by using a word "citizen", Kerum tries to give impression of more "hip", left-wing definition of Croatian state that doesn't emphasise ethnicity - just like multi-ethnic "civic" or "citizens" parties in neighbouring Bosnia-Herzegovina.

In this way Kerum tries to get to the Holy Grail of Croatian politics - position in political centre that could allow him to shift allegiances and policies depending to various economic and political circumstances. If a right-wing coalition is required, his party will be "Croatian". If a left-wing coalition is required, his party will be "citizens".

Another way to achieve Ideological ambiguity of Kerum's party is in personnel politics. None of the people in the new party leadership had any previous experience in political parties - they are almost exclusively Kerum's relatives, business partners or former top employees in his companies. None of them is likely to articulate some meaningful political program or original idea.

The platform of the party - exposed in parts by Željko Šundov, deputy mayor and Kerum's long-time right-hand man - is also hardly original. It looks like a carbon copy of almost any Croatian political party platform with usual set of obligatory declarations (human rights, democracy, UN, EU and NATO membership) and contradictory goals (pro-business policies vs. generous welfare state). Few hints of ideological affiliations in platform, however, point rightwards - mostly due to platform stating "support for all peaceful civic religions" instead of "freedom of religion" or "separation of church and state".

Those hints would be emphasised by anti-Kerum media in order for his party to be branded as "right-wing" or, thanks to verbal outbursts of Kerum and some of his over-enthusiastic supporters, "far right". In my view, however, "right-wing populism" is better term. Kerum himself explained his party as an attempt to "enter market", and the Split and his surroundings are currently more right-wing than other parts of country. In other words, Kerum would adapt his party ideology and policies towards ideological framework of his average voter.

At the same time, it is clear that Kerum has lofty ambitions of being a player at national level. He described HGS as "third strongest party in Croatia" - quite a stretch, considering that it was just founded and never had opportunity to test its strength at elections or opinion polls. Kerum, therefore, expects either to be kingmaker whose party will decide who has majority in Sabor or even to be prime minister himself.

HGS and Kerum, however, can't achieve that at this time. Kerum yesterday predicted that his party could win 10 seats in Sabor. This is feasible, but mostly at the expense of HDZ in Dalmatia - already mauled in May 2009 elections. Even with so many seats, HGS now looks like mostly regional phenomenon, somewhat stronger than regional HDSSB party in Slavonia.

In order to rise above that level, HGS would have to be something more than beacon for disgruntled right-wingers in the areas Denis Kuljiš recently began to call "Eastern Croatia". Sticking to mindset of Split and its hinterland would only create perfect excuse for SDP and HDZ to finally create their long-sought "Grand coalition" and preserve status quo by setting themselves as guardians of "proper European democracy" and against Kerum and other "dangerous irresponsible populists".

Croatian Election 2010: Battle of Dissidents?

Roughly five months before presidential elections, Croatian politics is in the state of increased drama. Situation was so different from those quiet, idyllic times two months ago when Ivo Sanader used to be prime minister with government and ruling party firmly in his hands and future of country, including the outcome of presidential elections, seemed boringly certain.

Nowadays nothing is certain about elections. There are talks about 2010 presidential elections being the last, at least if the average voter is concerned. Croatian media is reporting about chief HDZ ideologue Vladimir Šeks lobbying for constitutional changes that would abolish popular election of president and instead introduce "pure parliamentary" system with president being reduced to complete figurehead elected by Sabor supermajority. This plan is something that, reportedly, enjoys support of SDP, because that party traditionally fared badly on presidential elections and because pure parliamentary system appears to be "more European" or "radically different" from dark authoritarian days of Tudjman.

Ironically, 2010 presidential election appears to be the one SDP might win, at least according to polls. Ivo Josipović, SDP candidate, soft-spoken, "cultured" by at the same time faceless and uncharismatic legal expert, heavily favoured by SDP chairman Zoran Milanović, convincingly beats all competition. His pole position was further strenghtened when Davor Butković, chief columnist of Jutarnji list, strongly endorsed him.

Yet, somehow, few people are willing to bet on Josipović actually winning presidency. The reason for his strong showing in polls has less to do with SDP popularity and even less with Josipović's popularity. Main reason is in HDZ having presidential candidate in the form of Andrija Hebrang, self-declared leader of "unreformed" hard nationalist right-wing faction of the party, the very people Sanader was supposed to kick out or silence for the sake of long-term electoral prospects and European future of Croatia. Hebrang's chances look even less likely due to some of his "problematic" positions on certain social issues, like being pro-choice on abortion.

So, both candidates of Croatian main parties shouldn't count on mass enthusiasm to get themselves elected. The alternatives, on the other hand, could, and some of them has begun, implicitly and explicitly, to campaign, even while being members of those two parties.

In case of HDZ, in early July there was speculation of Ivo Sanader leaving government only to triumphantly return as last-minute saviour of his party's electoral prospects. Two months later, those speculations appear less convincing, mostly due to Croatian public falling in love quickly with new faces.

Milan Bandić, mayor of Zagreb, made series of well-publicised tours all over Croatia, which many interpreted as start of his presidential campaign. Bandić is, on the other hand, member of SDP and his boss Zoran Milanović said that Bandić could expect rapid expulsion from the party in case he runs and thus not support Josipović. Bandić, who has more than solid electoral base in Zagreb, couldn't care less about Milanović and SDP, but he apparently cared about polls showing that base not being as strong as it appeared.

That void was more successfully filled by Nadan Vidošević, chairman of Croatian Chamber of Commerce, who, unlike Bandić, openly defied his party - in his case, HDZ - and was expulsed from it. Vidošević appears to be formidable candidate, party due to his physical resemblance to George Clooney, partly due to clever distancing from Sanader and his economic policies and partly due to well-financed and well-oiled PR machine that tried to portray him as the most natural successor of Mesić. Vidošević currently enjoys around 12 percent in the polls, but this is more than solid base for further improvement. There are months before actual elections, and 2000 experiences with Mesić tell that even candidate who begins at No. 3 could end on No.1.

In this particular moment, the only thing that could stop Vidošević juggernaut is Bandić. If those two candidates enter the ring, they are likely to compete in second round. Both of them being their respective parties' dissidents is going to be huge slap in the face of Croatian political establishment.

Slovenia vs. Croatia: First Blood Avoided

Yesterday's incident, during which Slovenian police arrested 59-year Croatian armed with five hand grenades at first looks just like an incident. An isolated incident, work of a troubled, disturbed, war-wounded mind whose alleged intentions - blowing up Slovenian prime minister Borut Pahor - should be described as nothing more than madness.

Media from both sides of the border are mostly trying to calm things down. Slovenia has economic interests in Croatia, as well as plenty of tourists on Croatian beaches. Croatia would also be ill-served by Slovenian-Croatian conflict escalating into spillage of blood.

Yet, this incident was something that simply waited to happen. You can't simply inflame chauvinism by blaming Slovenian neighbours for all the ills that have struck Croatia - including resignation of prime minister Ivo Sanader - and expect such chauvinism to stay in the realms of usually harmless ethnic jokes. Push anti-Slovenian line hard enough and there would be madmen ready to "solve" that problem with the same methods political problems were solved in 1990s.

Thankfully, no blood was spilled. But it could have been, and very easily. Josip Zagajski (the alleged terrorist in question) tried to set hand grenades off while being apprehended. If he died in subsequent explosion, he could have provided anti-Slovenian chauvinists with a martyr figure. If Slovenian policeman or policemen died, anti-Croatian chauvinists from the other side of the border would have new martyrs, while Croatia would be branded as a nation of lunatic terrorists, never worthy of EU entry.

This incident could be something of a waking call for politicians, or at least those more sensible on the both sides of the border. What looks like a petty little border dispute - or one of many topics in EU internal debates over enlargments - could easily escalate into something unimaginable. Just as some seemingly petty constitutional squabbles of late 1980s ended with mass graves being dug around Srebrenica.

 

Convenient Death of Simo Dubajić

Simo Dubajić, retired Lt. Colonel of Yugoslav People's Army (JNA), died in Belgrade on Wednesday, aged 86. His death has probably ended one of the longest sought criminal proceedings in recent Croatian history. In March, Dubajić became target of Croatian State Attorney's Office due to his role in 1945 massacres in Kočevski Rog.

Kočevski Rog, an area in Slovenia, is site where at least 13000 Axis POWs (most of them belonging to forces of Independent State of Croatia) were executed by victorious Yugoslav Partisans, after being handed over by British near Bleiburg in Austria in May 1945, few days after Axis forces capitulation. Killings in Kočevski Rog is just one part of the campaign called Bleiburg Massacre which killed around 55000 people, making it into one of the more spectacular Allied war crimes of Second World War.

Bleiburg was taboo in Tito's Yugoslavia, only to become one of the topics most talked about after the break-up of the federation. This was especially evident in Croatia, where it became part of nationalist mythology and its victims became celebrated martyrs. The massacre also became formidable propaganda weapon against Social Democratic Party, successor of Communist Party of Croatia, political entity directly or indirectly associated with Partisans who took part in it.

However, despite all the talk about Bleiburg after 1990, there were very few attempts by Croatian authorities to prosecute those responsible. There are many speculations about resons for such reluctance, most of them based on the fact that Franjo Tuđman was Partisan in 1945 and, directly or indirectly, associated with massacres. Furthermore, Tuđman's idea of National Reconciliation - one of the basis of his party's ideology and one of pre-conditions for successful drive towards Croatian independence and victory in Patriotic War - would be compromised if there was widespread prosecution of Partisans. Since most of the suspects are in mid 80s, the prosecutions and trials could be as uncathartic and pathetic as 1986 trial Communist Croatia had against Andrija Artuković in Zagreb.

Lack of Partisan prosecutions in last 18 years was explained with the alleged non-participation of Croatian Partisan units in the massacres. Atrocities were instead committed by ethnic Serbs in Partisans and motivated by their "inherent and centuries old hatred of everything Croatian".

Dubajić, who is the only Partisan to actually become part of investigation, fits such description perfectly. In 1990, like some of his former comrades, he passionately embraced the cause of Serbian nationalism and even took part in organising paramilitary formation of Republic of Srpska Krajina.

Another, even more important reason why Dubajić was perfect is the fact that he is the only Partisan to actually admit killings and his role in it. In 1990 he gave interview to Svet, Belgrade weekly, in which he bragged about murdering "30000 Ustashas".

In 2006 Dubajić wrote a book in which he tried to give full account of his crimes, expressing regret for his actions. Most importantly, he named names and described how the killings in Kočevski rog were committed by members of 11th Dalmatian Brigade, which was manned mostly by ethnic Croats. Those claims - if taken seriously - could shatter the myth of Croatian Partisans being "clean" and serve as excellent propaganda fodder for Croatian right wing which became stronger during last two years of Sanader's mandate.

However, with Dubajić conveniently dead, it seems that there would be very little chance of Partisan prosecutions going any further. Perhaps that was the plan all along. Dubajić's death should mark the final curtain for Second World War in this part of the world. Or, at least, that is what any sensible person should hope for.

Unfortunately, experiences with Serbia and Battle of Kosovo show that there aren't historical traumas distant enough for contemporary politicians not to use them in order to create new ones.

 

Sanader's Resignation - Another Piece of Theatre or The Last Act?

Yesterday's news shocked and awed Croatian public, turning almost anyone into political analyst. The question almost everyone asks is simple "Why?"

Nobody in this part of the world voluntarily relinquishes power. Especially not after winning two parliamentary elections, and having opposition in disarray. Sanader on yesterday's press conference categorigally denied that his health anything to do with it. He gave some cryptic hints about "finishing his stretch of the road" and "new beginning" in his life.

That left evryone - his supporters and opponents alike - to scratch heads. There are various speculative explanations and they could be broadly divided into two groups.

The first group claims that Sanader didn't actually resign or - to be more precise - he doesn't want to leave reins of power. His plan is to make his presidential run as dramatic and formidable as possible and, hopefully, win some centrist and leftist voters. Therefore, he would abandon and distance himself from the party - which is now being visibly dominated by hard right cadre, former suppoters of his party rival Ivić Pašalić - as well from the government, which is going to be hated due to incoming budgetary, economic and social collapse. In Autumn Sanader is about to run as Knight In Shining Armour, rescuing Croatia both from ruin and from right-wing extremists running HDZ.

Second group claims that Sanader is actually sincere about leaving politics, at least for a year or two. Those who believe that his resignation is genuine are divided into two subgroups - those who believe that his resignation was indeed voluntary and those who believe that it was forced.

If Sanader wanted to resign, this seems like a good moment. He brought his party from the brink of disappearance in 2000, returned it to power, won two parliamentary and three sets of local elections. He defeated his party and all other political rivals. He was the most powerful, most charismatic of all Croatian politicians. If a Croatian fitted description of being "on top" it was Sanader. So, what was the better moment to quit? Especially with truly bad times unpleasantly looming. This way, Sanader will be remembered by Croatians as a man under whom they lived well, at least in comparatively.

However, there are also some signals that Sanader in last few years actually began to lose tight reins of the party by yielding increasing amount of clout to right-wingers. In order to win elections, he had to mobilise its Tudjmanist hard-core nationalist supporters and shift his rhetoric rightwards, far from centre and Europe. By acting right, he legitimised return of Tudjmanism in his own party and thus strenghtened it, which all recently - according to some media speculations - exploded in open revolt between Sanader and right-wingers' leader Andrija Hebrang. At the same time, Sanader's only weapon for pacifying right-wing was his "good European" credentials or prospect of Croatia joining EU soon under his leadership; when this prospect disappeared, so did the reason for right-wingers to tolerate Sanader. Many speculate that Hebrang and right-wingers actually blackmailed Sanader into resignation, using the evidence of various corruption scandals accumulated during last six years.

In any case, whatever Sanader's intentions were, his resignation wasn't greeted with much sympathy among Croatian public. Most of the comments in media, as well from ordinary people, are full with words and phrases like "irresponsible", "coward", "rats leaving sinking ship".

If Sanader indeed plays this like a piece of theatre, he might find that the voters he want to woo are attracted more to the vision of Sanader the Great Leader than to vision of Sanader the Drama Queen.

BTW, another English language post that tries to summarise and offer some explanation of yesterday's event can be found here.

BREAKING NEWS: Ivo Sanader Resigns

Jutarnji list reports - according to "well-informed sources within HDZ leadership" - that Ivo Sanader will resign as prime minister and chairman of HDZ party. According to same sources, Sanader will also drop any plans to compete in presidential elections.

New prime minister and leader of party will be Jadranka Kosor. Presidential nomination will be offered to Andrija Hebrang, leader of party's hard right. If he refuses, offer goes to Dragan Primorac, minister of science who recently threatened with resignation.

This decision is unexpected, to put it mildly. Some of the reasons will be explained at 14:00.

There were speculations that Sanader would abandon his premiership in order to run for president. As president, he would still have power without being responsible for economic situation that proved to be worse than anyone predicted. However, this move is too drastic. I suspect something like catastrophic worsening of health or maybe message from Bruxelles after which he abandoned any hopes of Croatia joining EU soon.

Croatian Obama vs. Croatian Hillary... NOT!

Croatia is supposed to have its first presidential primaries. Or, to be more precise, SDP will nominate its presidential candidates based on the ballot of its members. Some pro-SDP commentators are already pushing hype about new race being as exciting as the race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

Unfortunately, the electoral mechanism might look the same, but the candidates are far from creating a tiniest fraction of excitement created by Obama and Hillary. SDP top legal expert and Zagreb Faculty of Law professor Ivo Josipović - who doesn't have an ounce of charisma enjoys full support of SDP chief Zoran Milanović - is going against Ljubo Jurčić, chief economic expert, profesor of Zagreb School of Economicvs and former candidate for prime minister whose political blunders helped SDP snatch defeat from the jaws of victory at 2007 parliamentary elections.

Needless to say. both of those candidates will win primaries only to face candidate much more formidable, scruples and charismatic than John McCain. The final outcome of their clash with Ivo Sanader is hardly in doubt - there is only question whether SDP will get creamed in first or second round of presidential elections. My guess is that Josipović - who enjoys support of party bureacracy and SDP youth organisation - will provide shorter agony for SDP by losing in first round. Jurčić could snatch second round, but this is as far as he could go.

So, whatever SDP does, Sanader is going to become next Croatian president. His trip to Pantovčak could prevented only by third-party populist candidate. According to chatter in Croatian Facebook groups, popular TV host Denis Latin is contemplating his run. It looks like a long shot, but so did Stipe Mesić's run only few weeks before his election in 2000.

Croatian National Police Chief Sacked

Vladimir Faber, director of Police within Croatian Ministry of Interiors, has confirmed the speculations about his removal. The news has been brought to him by his superior and personal friend Tomislav Karamarko, minister of interiors. The removal will be formalised tomorrow after cabinet's meeting.

Faber's removal is hardly unexepected, because the national police chief - whom some considered to be Croatian version of Eliot Ness, while others called over-ambitious and over-zealous - stepped on too many powerful toes. In 2006 he was in charge of war crimes investigation which ultimately brought conviction of Branimir Glavaš.

He was appointed to his post in October 2008, following murder of Ivana Hodak. Karamarko was appointed to minister's post together with himn. Only few weeks later Ivo Pukanić was murdered, but Faber, surprisingly, made some arrests. Those successes brought him some PR points, but also created enmity in HDZ circles, including Sanader himself, who publicly berated Faber because of his statements regarding police corruption and HDZ influence on police personnel issues.

It is still unknown what was the hair that broke camel's back. Some claim that it was Faber's quick handling of underage prostitution scandal in Osijek - when his investigation, contrary to public outrage, found smearing between ex-spouses as the main issue. Other points to investigation of corruption within Ministry of Defence.

The latest issue was Faber's alleged refusal to let riot police beat protesting famers who recently blocked streets of Zagreb. Apparently, minister of agriculture Božidar Pankretić wanted police to "solve that problem" and later wanted Faber's head when national police chief - citing legal issues - refused to do that.

Faber's removal might be looked in the context of the great political realingment that might happen with Sanader's election to president. In that case, HDZ and government might be taken over by deputy prime minister Božidar Kalmeta, known for his hardline nationalist past as well as being indirectly related to corruption and rackeetering scandals. New HDZ government will have very little need to policemen who aren't "dependable" or who take their job too seriously.

New Parliamentary Elections in Autumn?

Ivo Sanader is now going strong. His party fared surprisingly well on the local elections, although it has less do with HDZ being particularly strong and more with SDP being tragically weak and incompetent. After the elections there are growing speculations about HDZ leader planning to succeed his rival Stipe Mesić at Pantovčak and thus become third President of Republic of Croatia.

Presidential elections are supposed to take place early next year, when Mesić's second term expires. Mesić, whose office was constitutionally emasculated a decade ago, is barred from seeking third term, but he nevertheless feels not only politically relevant, but also the best possible leader of broad left-wing coalition that could unseat HDZ and - which is more important - prevent ruling party from succumbing back to 1990s-style hardline nationalism.

His plans, however, could be destroyed by Sanader's presidential run. If Sanader runs for President, he is very likely to win - especially if SDP fields uncharismatic Ivo Josipović or compromised Ljubo Jurčić as their candidates. With Sanader in Pantovčak, Croatia would, for the first time since the end of Tuđman's era, have single party controling presidency (and that means army, diplomacy and intelligence services) together with the rest of executive branch. With Sabor held by firm coalition with other right-wing parties, and judiciary filled with Tuđman hardline loyalists, process of turning Croatia back to single-party state will be complete.

However, global economic crisis might have some political consequences in Croatia after all. Mainly, the state is bankrupt, being burdened with debt and government will be forced tomake some increasingly quick, unpopular and extremely painful budget cuts that would make life extremely miserable for the electorate. Sanader postponed such measures for almost six months in order to win elections. If he wants to win presidential elections, he would have to postpone austerity measures even further, making their final and inevitable application even harder and less popular.

There are speculations that Sanader decided to become president mainly in order to separate his charismatic and popular self from increasingly unpopular and visibly un-charismatic cabinet that would have to pay the piper at the polls in November 2011. Whoever succeeds Sanader as the head of cabinet must be weak, unpopular and uncharismatic; otherwise Sanader is in danger of nurturing backstabbing rival just as Tony Blair had Gordon Brown. Furthermore, in case Croatian opposition gets its stuff together and HDZ loses 2011 elections, Sanader could easily be insulated and constitutionally by new left-wing government.  

Vesna Škare-Ožbolt on her blog speculates that HDZ and Sanader might prevent this scenario by pushing for early parliamentary elections, maybe even in Autumn. The opposition, and especially SDP, is so demoralised and financially exhausted after disappointment on local elections that it simply won't be ready with another quick clash with HDZ electoral machine. If the parliamentary elections are held early, it is possible that HDZ will end with more Sabor seats than now - and maybe even with something close to absolute majority. It is almost certain that the elections held now would bring HDZ more seats than in November 2011, when the effects of global recessions can't be postponed or ignored.

Škare-Ožbolt thinks that the biggest victim of new HDZ plan could be its main and most loyal coalition partner - Croatian Peasant Party (HSS). Both HDZ and HSS are members of European People's Party, both have centre-right and conservative ideology and their partnership makes perfect sense. HSS in 2007 had small percentage of votes, but big enough to become kingmaker and allow Sanader another mandate. New leadership of HSS under Josip Frišćić is more loyal to HDZ than his predecessors like Zlatko Tomčić were to Ivica Račan and his left-wing government.

HSS expressed its loyalty by dropping all "problematic" sections of their 2007 election platform, like the protection of Adriatic or referendum about Croatian NATO membership. HSS with its strong local and regional organisations also allowed HDZ to triumph on local and regional elections. However, HSS in return got very little, and HSS electoral base - farmers - got even less. Some of them recently even protested in Zagreb by driving tractors and demanding better subsidies. Božidar Pankretić, agriculture minister and HSS cadre most known for his pro-HDZ views and loyalty to Sanader, said that the government simply hadn't got any money for that. Jadranka Kosor, Sanader's HDZ lieutenant and deputy prime minister, on the other hand, promised farmers whatever they wanted. In the end, HSS became humiliated.

Škare-Ožbolt thinks that Sanader through this and other humiliations wants to provoke the fall of his own government and thus force new elections. This infernal plan looks intriguing, but it underestimates HSS willingness to swallow anything in order to stay in power. Early elections could also have unforeseen consequences and unpleasant surprises for HDZ - like the loss of its Dubrovnik and Vukovar stronghold experienced few weeks ago.