Draxblog III

New Polls Give Kerum and Kregar Their First Reality Check

Željko Kerum and Josip Kregar are two quite different mayoral candidates yet their campaigns have created excitement, enthusiasm and even euphoria for exactly the same reasons - voters' desire express their disgust with current political establishment. Both candidates enjoyed huge boost in their popularity and both seem close to achieving their goals. Until recent polls that indicate that such task might be much harder than previously expected.

First such poll was phone inquiry conducted by Vectura, Zagreb-based polling agency, in Split. According to sample of 450 citizens of Split, Ranko Ostojić is actually leading previously unstoppable Kerum. SDP candidate can expect 36.7 percent of the vote in the first round compared with Kerum's 32 percent - or, if the undecided are excluded - 44.7 percent to 37.5 percent.

Ostojić's victory in first round, however, doesn't guarantee that SDP will actually get highly-coveted post of mayor in second Croatian city. Third place is held by current mayor and HDZ candidate Ivan Kuret with 13.8 percent. He can't expect victory, but it is reasonable to expect that most of his voters - who are right-wing - would support "Croat and Catholic" Kerum rather than "Commie" Ostojić.

Nevertheless, if those numbers are actually reflected in the polls, this could represent not only huge upset but represent huge morale blow for Kerum and his campaign. Even worse news for Kerum are poll results of his independent candidates' for City Council. Unlike Kerum, his choice of candidates - that include singer Jelena Rozga and mostly unknown candidates - isn't that popular among citizens of Split. Poll gives the list 18.4 percent, only slightly more than HDZ with 16.4 percent. Same poll gives SDP-led coalition chances to win almost 40 percent of the vote, creating blowout on May 17th.

If Kerum actually loses mayoral race, this means that his political career is in deep trouble. Instead of charismatic local leader, he could be reduced to insignificant second-fiddle in City Council, very much like ill-fated Velo misto list.

Josip Kregar is actually faring much worse in Zagreb, despite increasing enthusiasm of his supporters. Phone poll conducted by Večernji list (again sample of 450 potential voters) give Milan Bandić, current mayor and SDP candidate 33.8 percent (44 percent excluding undecided). Kregar can expect only 23.1 percent (30.3 percent) which means that he would to compensate 14-percent deficite if he is beat Bandić in second round. This is very unlikely, because third-placed HDZ candidate Jasen Mesić (12 percent, excluding undecided) gathers voters who are unlikely to vote for Kregar, increasingly painted as "Yugo-Communist" cadre in mainstream Croatian media.

Same poll, on the other hand, points to SDP blowout in the race for City Assembly. With 37.6 percent support, SDP candidates' list - which, among others, includes Croatian Pensioners' Party (HSU) - could expect absolute majority in City Assembly, since with undecided excluded this gives whopping 53.4 percent support. (Source: Zoran Oštrić at Pollitika.com). Kregar could also comfort himself with his list actually entering City Assembly - achievement that seems doable only to HDZ candidates' list (and, arguably, independent list of Tatjana Holjevac).  Two parties that, until recently, represented Croatian political mainstream - centrist HNS and far right HSP - are not going to pass 5 percent tresshold, and thus are going to be excluded from City Assembly.

If SDP doesn't make absolute majority, his most likely post-election coalition partner is Kregar, despite the reason that most of Kregar's support comes from the utter disgust with Bandić and his policies.

Specter of Defections Not Haunting Croatia

America is going to change beyond recognition due to Barack Obama now having long-coveted goal of fillibuster-proof Senate majority that allows Democrats to do whatever they want and Republicans being reduced to insignificant perpetual minority - very much like Communists in post-war Italy and SDP in contemporary Croatia. With 60 senators, demographic trends and full support of media, Democratic majority in USA seems permanent and left-wing agenda is going to be pursued and achieved with intensity few people would have dreamed possible only few years ago.

However, I don't think that Croatian media are going to pay much attention to this event, most likely because the person responsible doesn't fit the narrative of miracle-working American president that was built among this country's media establishment and parts of public that actually care about those things (and who almost always happen to belong to Limousine Liberal Left). Specter was Republican and, as such, he represented the side what most Croatians see as Irreedemable Evil, therefore he is not worthy of being mentioned in positive context, even when he does the right thing.

Furthermore, the way Obama got his supermajority - elected representative switching parties -  looks very more like the prosaic reality of Croatian politics than idealistic Bright New World of Obama's America. In most cases, those defections were in direction different from Specter's - from left-wing to right-wing. In almost any cases those defections - whicha are quite common in regional and local assemblies - allowed for regional and local administration to look quite different from what voters had elected, thus creating widespread dissatisfaction and revulsion towards politics in general.

Specter's story might indicate that things aren't that different in America - which is, especially in Obama's time - supposed to be positive role model for Croatian politics. Croatian media, therefore, will do everything in their power to ignore and downplay the story and spare the public from another painful shattering of illusions.

 

One of the Investigators in Hodak and Pukanić Cases Shoots Himself

T.F., 35-year old assistant commander of Operations Command Centre of Zagreb Police District - who was one of the investigators in murder cases of Ivana Hodak and Ivo Pukanić - committed suicide this morning. Apparently he shot himself in the head while driving a car on the road between Zagreb and Krapina.

This news comes after recent arrest of Sreten Jocić a.k.a. Joca Amsterdam, who is, among other things, formally charged as one of the organisers of Pukanić assassination. 

Jutarnji list quotes "informal sources" that the policeman (in service since 1998) recently had problems with repaying his loans. Conspiracy theories - probably not much wackier than the official version of Mladen Šlogar as Ivana Hodak's assassins - are, however, inevitable.

Annus Horribilis

Predicting future is always thankless task, but it is hard not to conclude that 2009 will be the hardest year for Croatia since the war. Tourist season, which had to magically rescue Croatia from global economic crisis, is probably killed by swine flue pandemic. It doesn't matter whether the oubreak is genuine global killer in the rank of Black Death and Spanish influenza. The publicity will do enough to create two or three months of panic and thus scare any potential tourists from Croatian shores.

June 1st - when the last round of local elections end and campaign promises have to succumb to reality - is going to be grim day indeed.

Split Mayoral Race Gets Its First DUI Incident

How could Split mayoral election pass without alcohol-related incident? In Zagreb, two major candidates - Milan Bandić and Josip Kregar - had their share of alcohol-related issues. Bandić had its infamous Driving Under Influence moment in the past, while Kregar happens to be subject of malicious whisper campaign based on his alleged love of drinking.

In Split, the media dogs have to settle with the father of Ranko Ostojić, SDP candidate. Last night he took few drinks too many and hit traffic lights with his car. Ostojić Junior's comments to Jutarnji list hinted at press conference that would show local police and its reports being abused for petty political purposes.

The incident is likely to delight increasingly passionate kerumistas, but future mayor of Split should be wise to abstain from any comment, since he had caused a major (and injury-causing) traffic incident himself.

Split Intelligentsia vs. Voters' Intelligence

Split mayoral election became even more interesting on Thursday with an open letter signed by twelve intellectuals - musicians Saša Antić and Dragan Lukić Šegedin (musicians), Renato Baretić, Zlatko Gall, Jurica Pavičić, Olja Savičević and Ante Tomić (writers and journalist), Alem Ćurin (illustrator and comic book writer), dr. Ivan Grubišić (Catholic priest and sociologist), Inga Koludrović Tomić (sociologist), Slobodan Prosperov Novak (literature historian) and Zoja Odak (actress).

The letter says that the next elections are "unusual" because they would determine who would lead Split in next four "important years"  in which Split will "transform from industrial into students's city". According to the letter, this process is "sensitive" and requires "knowlegde, vision and culture".

The last word - "culture" - clearly indicates whom the persons above would not like to see as next mayor of Split. The letter continues with an appeal for citizens of Split to vote for *anyone* but Željko Kerum, painstakingly reminding Kerum's eventual conflict of interests, as well as incidents ranging from traffic violations, few politically incorrect statements and barroom brawl.

This appeal was hardly unexpected, especially with brief campaign becoming intense and Kerum seemingly unstoppable march towards electoral triumph which makes his opponents, mainly Ranko Ostojić, desperate. Most people who signed the letter are known for their left-wing views, so it is natural to expect them to support Ostojić rather than Kerum.

The issue with this letter is in their refusal to express their support for Ostojić and instead go for the negative and paint Kerum as the worst abomination that could befall fair city of Split. If the idea was to warn voters not to make terrible mistake, they made even worse mistake themselves. Namely, by saying that *anyone* was preferable to Kerum, they announced their agreement with the voters' choice that could bring someone like Luka Podrug - leading far right politician in Split - to the city's helm.

Intellectuals publicly endorsing or opposing candidates in form of public appeal is nothing new in Croatia, but its effectiveness left much to be desired. The first example was happened during first democratic elections in 1990, when most of Croiatian intelligentsia supported ill-fated Coalition of People's Accord.

On the other hand, this attempt to support Ostojić, while trying to make themselves non-partisan "concerned citizens" above the "petty politics", is most likely to be interpreted as an insult to voters' intelligence.

The only thing that could make any sense out of this effort is Kerum himself, especially if he over-reacts and succumb to negativity he so far avoided. His statements, in which he called Split intellectuals "evil", "malevolent", "self-appointed intellectuals" and "hacks" might play right into Ostojić's hands.

Interestingly enough, a week earlier Kerum actually managed to recruit one left-wing intellectual to his cause - journalist and humourist Đermano Ćićo Senjanović of Feral Tribune fame.

Wastelands of Historic Reality

After reading about historian Dr. David Starkey and his views about Scotland, Wales and Ireland as "feeble little countries" my first thought was "This is what Franjo Tuđman's career would have looked like if history took slightly different course".

G-Word

Associated Press recently published news analysis of Barack Obama's foreign policy. The most interesting detail in it are the strong and explicit parallels between Obama and Mikhail Gorbachev, last leader of Soviet Union. Most of Obama supporters are likely to view this comparison as a compliment, because American leader is put in the same league with great statesman, visionary and reformer who ended the Cold War and decades of nuclear nightmare.

On the other hand, by painting Obama as American Gorbachev AP and other media are unwillingly giving legitimacy to the voices who until recently belonged to lunatic fringe. In other words, if Obama is new Gorbachev, than it is somewhat easier to imagine United States of America having the same fate as Soviet Union.

Of course, USA being wiped from the political map of the world is still inconceivable. Due to different cultural, political and economic condititions, forces of separatism in America are still marginal. Good example is poll in Texas which shows that only 17 percent of Texans would vote for secession and only 25 percent believe that Texas actually has right to secede, despite Governor Rick Perry's claims.

On the other hand, when Gorbachev came to power, those who actually believed in imminent collapse of USSR were minority and those who publicly expressed such views were on the fringe, very much like Professor Igor Panarin is now. By calling Obama "American Gorbachev" media might fertilise public opinion - especially if current economic crisis gets as bad as many believe it would - for history to repeat itself and that phrase becomes chillingly self-fulfilling prophecy.

Local Elections 2009: Polls Indicate HDZ Loss in Four Biggest Cities

Nova TV appears to be the best organised for the coverage of local elections. Its website has a special section dedicated to all aspects of elections. Nova TV is also going to organise first on-line debate between three candidates for mayor of Osijek, moderated by Mislav Bago. 

Nova TV has also conducted first set of polls that indicate results of elections in four biggest cities of Croatia - Zagreb, Split, Rijeka and Osijek. All four indicate that HDZ or candidates supported by ruling party would lose. 

Good news for Zoran Milanović and SDP appears to be Rijeka, which is the only of those four cities to have mayor after first round of voting. Current mayor Veljko Obersnel can expect 58 % of votes, followed by Mladen Ivaniš from regional PGS party (15 %), while HDZ candidate Vesna Buterin will end on humiliating 10 % of votes. This result is hardly surprising because "Red Rijeka" is one of few Croatian cities to have continous former Communist adminisration since 1990.

Much tighter and rather unpredictable race is expected in Osijek, where Anto Đapić, leader of far right HSP party, currently allied to HDZ, fights for survival following disastreous 2007 parliamentary elections that left him as the only member of Sabor belonging to that once formidable party. Đapić, however, with 29 % votes trails Krešimir Bubalo, candidate of regional HDSSB party, associated with war crimes suspect Branimir Glavaš. Bubalo can expects 35 % of the vote and looks like favourite, since he is likely to collect currently split right-wing votes in second round. Surprise may come from Josip Vrbošić, candidate of SDP-HSLS coalition that is close third with 25 % of vote.

Željko Kerum is mauntaining the favourite status in Split mayoral race with 36 % of votes. SDP candidate Ranko Ostojić is close with 29 % of votes, but he is unlikely to win in second round due to current mayor and HDZ candidate Ivan Kuret winning 14 % of votes and his right-wing votes probably going to Kerum rather to Ostojić. Another poll, conducted by Split Law School students, hints at possibility of Kerum winning in first round, because he could expect 45 %, while Ostojić can only get 25 %.

Things got even more interesting in Zagreb. Current mayor and SDP candidate Milan Bandić, who entered the race as an absolute favourite, is currently sinking. He still has a commanding lead with 36 %, while independent candidate Josip Kregar could expect 20 % of votes. So far, this is within expectations. However, surprise came with Tatjana Holjevac, head of independent list currently in Zagreb City Assembly and one of Bandić's allies. Daughter of legendary Zagreb mayor Većeslav Holjevac pushed to the third place with impressive 14 %. Jasen Mesić, who was supposed to be "great hope" for HDZ, is on humiliating fourth place with 8 %. Kregar, so far, seems set to enter second round, while his chances to unseating Bandić are slightly increasing.

Of course, in the end HDZ is likely to claim victory on local elections, because it is going to win majorities in most county assemblies - due to increasingly solid alliance with HSS - and in majority of small, rural, impoverished municipalities that depend on central government to survive. Bandić's defeat in Zagreb could also be spun into great victory for HDZ.

Another Romantic Revolutionary Ends in Bolivia

Hungarian media reports that one of the men killed by Bolivian police while allegedly plotting to assassinate plot against Evo Morales is Eduardo Rozsa-Flores, former Latin American leftist revolutionary who fought on the side of Croatia as leader of international volunteers during Patriotic War 1991. Those exploits were covered in Chico, 2001 film in which Rozsa-Flores played the main character - his alter ego. (Hungarian link).