Draxblog III

First Shots in Split Mayoral Campaign

Although the first campaign for Split mayor in modern Croatian history haven't officially started, it is already clear that it would be much more entertaining and interesting than the local elections four years ago. Željko Kerum is still the clear favourite, and that impression is made by the endless stream of media publicity.

However, judging by the series of recent articles, not all of that publicity is good. Actually, Kerum's fans have reasons to believe that there is a concentrated and well-planned character assassination operation in media. Story in Slobodna Dalmacija about Kerum's Ferrari being purchased while using nephew's Patriotic War veterans' customs privileges even caused authors of otherwise docile Željko Kerum Club to publish passionate response. More recently, Nova TV aired interview with a mother of a teenager hospitalised after fight with Kerum's godson - which created another mini-scandal when the godson returned to HNK Hajduk team after being suspended due to the incident. The mother accusses Kerum - major shareholder in Hajduk - of influencing club administration.

It is too early to tell whether those mini-scandals are going to slow or stop what appears to be unstoppable Kerum juggernaut. All relevant polls so far point towards Kerum enjoying huge lead over SDP candidate Ranko Ostojić with Ivan Kuret, HDZ candidate and current mayor, being embarassingly third.

Slobodna Dalmacija also today published article claiming that Zoran Milanović, chairman of SDP, demands that Ostojić beat Kerum and thus bring Croatia's second city among places where his party is in power. Failure to do so, the article concludes, could mean bitter defeat for SDP, already weakened by unexpected fiasco on parliamentary elections in November 2007.

This might explain why Sanader doesn't appear to feel threatened by Kerum. Having his party's candidate Kuret humiliated is small price to pay for even bigger humiliation of his main national rival.

 

"All White People Look the Same To Me"

News about alleged arrest of Ratko Mladić in Kenya wasn't the most shining chapter in recent history of Croatian journalism. The brief ecstasy created by the thought of Mladić finally getting behind bars was understandably followed by huge disappointment. Even more so when it turned out that the alleged Bosnian Serb war criminal happened to be Igor Majeski, Croatian expatriate who came to live in Kenya years before the start of late unpleasantness in former Yugoslavia.

Croatian media, of course, couldn't miss opportunity for outbursts of outrage. After touching stories about Majeski having to spend unpleasant hours in Third World jail some commentators accused Kenyan police of gross incompetence. Majeski doesn't happen to look like Mladić at all, so how could those African Keystone cops mistake innocent Croat for the worst war criminal in recent memory? (One blogger tries to explain the mistake with "cultural facial recognition patterns").

Of course, in all that outrage it was conveniently forgotten that Kenyan neighbourhood had its share of "unplesantness" in past years, as well as various characters whose deeds in terms of bodycount and cruelty dwarf everything Bosnian Serbs did. Needless to say, many Croatians couldn't show Sierra Leone, Rwanda or Congo on world map and it is even bigger stretch of hope that they could know the names of people responsible for those horrors. If any of them happens to walk in busy Zagreb or Dubrovnik street, I doubt that any passeby would call police.

Business.hr Survives

Finally, one good news about Croatian media. Business.hr will continue to be published despite its previous owner, Swedish media group Bonier, pulling the plug one month ago. Đurđica Klancir, its editor-in-chief, informed the staff this morning that the paper and on-line news portal will continue to operate due to new buyer.

Seebiz.eu mentions two possible candidates - CME (owners of Nova TV) and Robert Ježić, owner of Novi list. Vienna Capital Partners, owner of Nacional magazine - which was mentioned as potential buyer - is not going to be part of deal, according to seebiz.eu sources. The new owner will be known on Monday.

Heirs of Velo Misto List

Since Lista Velog mista (Velo misto List) abandoned local elections in Split, many local players are going to fill the gap and exploit popular disgust with established yet corrupt and incompentent political parties. Slobodna Dalmacija so far identified four possible heirs for that niche - four lists of independent candidates.

Two of those lists are led by current members of City Assembly - Ljubica Vrdoljak (member of now defunct right-wing Croatian Bloc party) and Hrvoje Marušić (dentist who broke with Lista Velo Misto). The third is Nikola Grabić, former mayor who was elected as member of HSLS only to spectacularly join HDZ in 1995 following euphoria after Operation Storm.

All those three lists were, in one way or another, part of establishment. Vrdoljak and Marušić were part of government until very recently, while Grabić symbolised all the worst stereotypes of opportunistic political conversion in 1990s Croatia.

So far the only option for Split citizens to cast non-partisan protest votes and thus stick it to The Man is Nova Generacija, list of independent "and mostly young candidates" led by Ante Zoričić. In their propaganda brochures they say "We Got Organised" and it seems that their campaign justify that claim. They have rather good-looking website with FAQ and whole set of concrete plans for various city issues.

The only problem for that list is its leader Zoričić who used to be one of the leaders of HDZ Youth until backing the wrong horse during Sanader vs. Pašalić fight in 2002. Zoričić supported Pašalić and his hard nationalist faction against moderate pro-European Pašalić. Because of its leader's past Nova generacija list might lose many left and centrist voters - who would otherwise be attracted to this "cool", "hip" and anti-establishment platform.

Their Friend Gyurcsany

Hungarian prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsany offered his resignation, thus becoming another victim of global economic crisis. However, his downfall was expected long before anyone could have imagined global crisis. His handling of Hungarian economy and arrogance towards voters brought violence on Hungarian streets in Autumn 2006.

One of Croatian bloggers makes comparative analysis between economic situation of Hungary under Gyurcsany and Croatia under Sanader and finds many disturbing similarities. His conclusion is that Gyurcsany and Sanader led their countries in rather similar ways with similar results. The post is titled "His Friend Ferenc and Him", which is pun on Sanader's habit to address leading European politicians with words like "My friend Bertie Ahern" or "My Friend Angela Merkel", thus showing his pro-European and statesman's credentials.

What the post failed to mention is that Sanader and Gyurcsany might indeed be similar in ways of governing, but that ideologically belong to different camps. Sanader's HDZ is right wing, while Gyurcsany MSZP (former Communists) is left wing.

The latter was roughly two years ago picked by Sanader's main rival Zoran Milanović who, trying to present his own international role models, picked Gyurcsany as someone "who admires and whose successes would like to emulate". Milanović did it *after* the October 2006 riots in Hungary, when everyone had some idea that Gyurcsany and his party wasn't that good.

With Milanović showing such lack of international perspective and vision failure of SDP in November 2007 elections doesn't look that surprising.

Slippery Slopes of Carpathian Mountains

Well, it had to happen sooner or later. According to Professor Valerian Ciocel, one of the legal experts taking part in Romanian legal reforms, new Criminal Code of that EU member country is going to decriminalise incest. Instead of being jailed, "consenting adults" caught in incest will be given psychiatric treatment without criminal records.

This story appears to be rather old, but it was picked by mainstream Croatian media only yesterday, most probably due to extra publicity created by Fritzl verdict. In any case, the timing for the revelation of this new initiative is worst possible. I can already imagine headlines like "Romanians Would Legalise Fritzl".

Most comments in Croatia, so far, has descended into usual ethnic stereotyping of an Eastern, Orthodox and therefore "barbaric and un-European nation". Many claim that the Romania was forced to do it due to widespread incest among members of their Roma community.

Most people who would try to comment on this without ethnic stereotyping are going to be social conservatives. For them, this initiative is going to be long-sought Holy Graal - convincing argument about liberal legislation paving the way for all kinds currently unacceptable sexual behaviours.

Just as homosexuality was first decriminalised, then legalised and tolerated by being viewed as a relationship between consenting adults, so would incest. The argument about "slippery slope" now looks more convincing.

On the other hand, one of the most important and convincing arguments for the preservation of incest as social taboo - likelihood of genetically deformed offspring of incestous pairs - was weakened by contraxeption, the very same technological advances that made sexual revolution possible.

Romania (and the rest of the "enlightened and progressive" Western world) took that road, but I still don't see legalisation and social acceptance of incestous pairs any time soon. The economic crisis - if it is as bad as many predict - would turn most people more conservative for at least decade or two. It would probably take three or four decades before constitutional amendments for sibling marriages in California.

Another Velo misto Becomes Part of History

It is too early to tell who would win local elections in Split. Another thing is, however, certain - List of Velo misto, group of local businessmen organised as a block of independent candidates (and named after eponymous TV show written by legendary Split chronicler Miljenko Smoje) - isn't going to be kingmaker after the elections.

Today, their leader Željko Jerkov announced that he won't run for mayor and that their list won't participate in May election. Instead, they called for two major parties - HDZ and SDP - to form joint coalition.

Most people in Split won't miss them at the ballot box. Option that looked like a breath of fresh non-partisan air four years ago now looks too much like part of establishment.

Jerkov explained their decision with "unclear new laws" and possibility that the mayor - who is going to be directly elected by voters instead by City Assembly - get blocked by hostile City Assembly. Most speculations, however, are going to point towards extremely bad poll numbers. Jerkov and the rest of practical businessmen probably concluded that the number of votes is going to be so embarrassingly low that they should probably never bother.

Jerkov, however, during press conference said that the List gathered 2000 signatures necessary for the electoral run.

10 Croatian Tourism Myths

Croatian electoral system is reflection of general state of affairs in Croatia, where mediocrity rules and hard work is never properly rewarded. Best example could be found in last parliamentary elections during which Tonči Tadi, one of the most hard-working and active members of Sabor, failed to return to his seat. Thankfully, Tadić, whose specialty is in tourism and maritime affairs, continues his work by blogging and Pollitika.com published a post called "10 Croatian Tourism Myths".

The myths Tadić tries to debunk are:

1. Tourism is a magic wand that would solve unemployment problem in Croatia.
2. Croatia enjoys huge incomes from tourism.
3. Tourism serves to promote domestic products.
4. Tourism is overburdened with taxes.
5. Croatia is too expensive tourist destination.
6. Tourism preserves environment more than industry.
7. Tourism, especially elite tourism, brings the fastest development possible.
8. All tourism resources should be privatised.
9. Tourism should dictate civic planning.
10. Tourists aren't interested in Croatian culture and prefer "international" offerings

Judging by the comments, most readers of pollitika.com tend to agree with Tadić and his analysis. In light of recent macroeconomic events, the post is rather somber and grim reading.

Black Hand vs. Future Mayor of Split

Roughly two months before local elections, first felony related that process was committed. Slobodna Dalmacija reports that Željko Kerum, 45-year old tycoon and candidate for the mayor of Split, received threatening letters signed by "Black Hand". Anonymous person threatened the life of Kerum's family if he became mayor. The letter were delivered via mailbox to Kerum's firm headquarters on February 25th and March 12th.

Kerum, who, according to polls, could expect easy victory over SDP candidate Ranko Ostojić and HDZ candidate Ivo Kuret, took those threats seriously and informed police. Some of the commenters in Slobodna Dalmacija, however, aren't impressed. They think that the whole business was nothing more than Kerum's PR stunt. On the other hand, in a similar situation one year ago everyone thought that Pukanić was full of it.

Getting Nastier

Dispute between Croatia and Slovenia is, as times go by, getting nastier and nastier. Relations between two nations, who were, until very recently, supposed to be natural allies, have sunk to levels that could easily compare to relations between Croatia and Serbia in early 1990s.

Probably nothing shows how situation deteriorated than this column by eminent Croatian journalist Boris Dežulović. Former member of famous Feral Tribune trio and hardly a nationalist, Dežulović can't avoid being disturbed with similarities between today's Slovenia and Serbia under Milošević.

If someone enlightened like Dežulović comes to such conclusions, it is easy to imagine how the escalating conflict would look to the great unwashed masses on the southern side of Croatian-Slovenian border. Especially with combination of economic crisis and ruling party willing to embrace atavistic chauvinism in order to cling to power.